AB ZİRVESİ VE FRANSA

Makalelerim
Avrupa Birliği Devlet ve Hükümet Başkanları 2008 yılının son zirvesini 11-12 Aralık 2008 tarihinde Brüksel’de gerçekleştirmiş bulunmaktadırlar. ABD’de başlayıp tüm dünyayı etkisi altına alan küresel mali krizin gölgesinde gerçekleştirilen zirve, aynı zamanda Fransa’nın Dönem Başkanlığının da son zirvesi olması hasebiyle önem arz etmektedir. 2007 Aralık Zirvesi sonuç bildirgesinde Türkiye’ye yönelik “katılım” ve “üyelik” ifadelerinin yer almamasını sağlayan Fransa bu defa, genişleme konusunun gündem dışı bırakılmasında ısrar etmiş ve yine başarılı olmuştur. Özellikle Türkiye’nin AB üyeliğini engelleme çabalarını yoğunlaştırma ve tam üyeliğe karşı alternatifler üretme planlarıyla 1 Temmuz 2008 tarihinde AB dönem başkanlığını devralan Fransa Cumhurbaşkanı Nicolas Sarkozy, son altı ayda dünya siyasi ve ekonomik gündemine adeta bomba gibi düşen olaylar nedeniyle, bu emelini gerçekleştirme fırsatını bulamadan başkanlık koltuğunu devretme hazırlıklarına başlamış bulunmaktadır.“Avrupalı” olmadığı iddiasıyla, “bütün kriterleri yerine getirse bile, Türkiye’nin AB üyeliğine karşı çıkacağını” açıkça ifade eden Sarkozy’nin, büyük umutlar bağladığı dönem başkanlığı sürecini değerlendirmeye geçmeden evvel, 11-12 Aralık’ta düzenlenen AB Zirvesi’nin sonuçları hakkında kısaca bilgi vermekte fayda bulunmaktadır:

AB ekonomisinin, Küresel finansal krizin de etkisiyle ekonomik durgunluğa girdiği bir sırada gerçekleştirilen Zirve, alınan kararların niteliği itibariyle, üzerinde durmaya değerdir. Zira, Zirvede esas olarak 4 önemli konuda mutabakata varılmıştır ki bu kararlar ekonomik, siyasi ve toplumsal alanlarda AB’nin bir nevi yol haritası niteliğindedir. Bu kararları şu şekilde sınıflandırmamız mümkün bulunmaktadır;

– Liderler, küresel ekonomik krizi aşmak amacıyla, 200 milyar Euro’luk bir kurtarma paketi üzerinde anlaşmaya varmışlardır. Buna göre, AB gayri safi yurtiçi hâsılasının yüzde 1,5’ine karşılık gelen teşvik paketinin 170 milyar Euro’su üye devletlerin ulusal teşvik paketlerinin toplamından, 30 milyar Euro’su ise AB ortak bütçesinden ve Avrupa Yatırım Bankası kredilerinden oluşacaktır. Ayrıca paketin, ABD’nin de katılımıyla “Transatlantik kurtarma planı” şekline dönüştürülmesi çağrısı da bu zirvede yapılmış bulunmaktadır.

– 1990 yılı itibariyle Avrupa’dan atmosfere salınan sera gazı miktarının, 2020 yılına kadar yüzde 20 oranında düşürülmesi kararlaştırılmıştır. Bu kapsamda, Doğu Avrupa ülkelerine, ilaveten ücretsiz karbon kredisi verilecek, Batı Avrupa’daki sanayi işletmelerine de karbon emisyonlarını azaltma maliyetlerini düşürebilmeleri için önemli teşvikler sağlanacaktır. Ayrıca, 20-20-20″ adıyla anılan pakete göre, 2020 yılına kadar birlik ülkeleri genelinde tüketilen enerjinin yüzde 20’sinin yenilenebilir kaynaklardan elde edilmesi hedeflenmekte, yine 2020’ye kadar yüzde 20 oranında enerji tasarrufu yapılması öngörülmektedir.

– Bilindiği üzere, Lizbon Anlaşmasının (Reform Anlaşması) İrlanda halkı tarafından Haziran 2008 tarihinde reddedilmesi üzerine, AB yeni bir bunalımın içine doğru sürüklenmişti. İşte bu siyasi krizi aşmaya yönelik olarak,  İrlanda’nın, Lizbon Anlaşmasını 2009 yılında tekrar referanduma sunması karşılığında, bu ülkeye birtakım tavizler verilmesi kararlaştırılmıştır. Buna göre, İrlanda hükümeti, mevcut AB komisyonu’nun görev süresinin sona ereceği 2009 Kasım ayından önce Anlaşmayı tekrar halkoyuna sunacak, karşılığında, tüm üye ülkelerin AB Komisyonunda temsil edilmesi garanti altına alınacak ve bu ülkeye vergilendirme, işçi hakları, kürtaj ve tarafsızlık politikası gibi konularda AB müdahalesinden bağımsızlık tanınacaktır.

– AB zirvesine sunulan ”(Askeri) Kapasitenin Güçlendirilmesi Deklarasyonu”nda, mevcut ve gelecekteki tehditlere cevap verebilmesi için gelecek yıllarda AB’nin büyük bir operasyonda, 60 gün içinde 60 bin askeri konuşlandırma kapasitesine ulaşması gerektiğinin vurgulanması özellikle dikkat çekicidir. Zira, uluslar arası siyasi arenada bir türlü varlığını hissettiremeyen AB, küresel bir oyuncu olabilmek için, etkili bir askeri güce olan ihtiyacı daha çok hissetmeye başlamış bulunmaktadır. Mevcut askeri kapasitenin güçlendirilmesini ”en önemli” hedef olarak belirleyen belgede, uluslararası arenada AB’nin artık ”tanınan ve aranan oyuncu” haline geldiği ifade edilmektedir. AB’nin yakın coğrafyasındaki sorunların çözümünde ”bölgesel oyuncuların bir araya getirilmesi gerektiği” belirtilen belgede, ”Türkiye, Mısır, Ürdün, Suudi Arabistan ve Katar bölgede artan oranda önemli rol oynuyor. Medeniyetler İttifakı yoluyla yapılan da dâhil olmak üzere Türkiye ile birlikte çalışmak özel bir fırsat sunuyor” şeklinde bir ifadenin yer alması ise, Türkiye’nin jeostratejik öneminin anlaşılmaya başlandığını işaret etmektedir.

Görüldüğü üzere, AB Zirvesi’nde Liderler, genişleme konusuna herhangi bir atıfta bile bulunmadan, mevcut ve ileride ortaya çıkması muhtemel krizlerin çözülmesi için mesai harcamış ve krizleri aşabilecek önemli kararlar almış bulunmaktadırlar. Bu sayede, Liderler bir yandan, AB’nin geleceğinin şekillenmesi ve dünya siyasetinde etkili bir şekilde temsil edilmesini sağlayacak Lizbon Anlaşmasının önünü açarak, yaşanan siyasi şokun etkisini üzerlerinden atmış, bir yandan da Avrupa’yı ekonomik durgunluğa sürükleyen küresel finansal krizin nasıl aşılacağı konusunda AB devleri arasında yaşanan fikir ayrılıkları giderilerek, ortak bir kurtarma paketi üzerinde anlaşmaya varılabilmiştir. 2009 yılında yarım milyon insanın işsiz kalması beklenen Almanya’nın Başbakanı Angela Merkel’in bu defa ortak bir kurtarma paketine evet demesi, ekonomik krizin boyutlarını göstermesi bakımından dikkate değerdir.

Öte yandan, AB Genel İşler ve Dış İlişkiler Konseyinin 8 Aralık’ta gerçekleştirdiği toplantısında Kıbrıs ile ilgili söylemini sertleştirmesi, Rumların ve Yunanistan’ın kararlar üzerindeki etkisini açıkça ortaya koymaktadır. Zira, alınan kararda,  “AB Konseyi, Türkiye’nin Ek Protokolü bütüncül ve ayrım gözetmeden uygulama yükümlülüğünü yerine getirmemesini üzüntüyle karşılar” ifadesi yer almakta ve Türkiye’nin Kıbrıs Rum Kesimiyle ilişkilerini normalleştirme yolunda adım atmadığı iddia edilmektedir. 2008 Yılı Türkiye İlerleme Raporu’nda da benzer ifadelere yer veren AB, Kıbrıs konusunda Türkiye’ye karşı baskı politikası uygulamaya devam etmektedir.

Türkiye’nin AB üyeliğini engelleme anlamında Fransa’nın en yakın mesai arkadaşları olan Yunanistan ve onun taşeronu durumundaki GKRY, adeta birbirleriyle yarış halindedirler. Mesela, son olarak Sarkozy, genişleme konusunu AB Liderler Zirvesi gündemine aldırmamış, Kıbrıs Rum Yönetimi ise Türkiye’yi, Aralık ayında açılması planlanan müzakere başlıklarından olan Enerji Faslını veto etmekle tehdit etmiş bulunmaktadır. Bilindiği gibi, Fransa ve Kıbrıs Rum Kesiminin vetolarıyla çok sayıda müzakere başlığı zaten askıya alınmış durumdadır ve birçoğu da, Komisyon tarama raporlarını göndermediği için açılamamaktadır. 2005 yılı Ekim ayında başlayan ve 35 fasıldan oluşan müzakere başlıklarından şu ana kadar sadece sekiz tanesi görüşmeye açılmış ve yalnızca bir tanesi kapatılabilmiştir.

Türkiye’yi, reformların yapılmasında ve tam üyelik müzakerelerinin yürütülmesinde isteksiz davranmakla suçlayan AB’nin, esasen müzakerelerin yavaşlamasından bizatihi kendisinin sorumlu olduğunu görmesi gerekmektedir. Ayrıca, Türkiye ile aynı zamanda başlayan müzakereleri Hırvatistan için 2009 yılında bitirmeyi planlayan Avrupa Birliği’nin,  “ucu açık bir süreç” veya “imtiyazlı ortaklık” gibi belirsiz ifadelerle Türkiye’yi oyalamaya çalışması ise sürecin yavaşlamasının en büyük sebeplerinden bir tanesidir.

Bu noktada, katılım müzakerelerinin önündeki en büyük engellerden birisi olan Fransa’nın, 1 Temmuz’da başlayan AB Dönem Başkanlığı süreci hakkında kısaca bilgi vermekte yarar bulunmaktadır:

Bilindiği gibi Fransa, AB’nin 2007 Aralık Zirvesi sonuç bildirgesinde Türkiye’ye yönelik “katılım” ve “üyelik” ifadelerinin yer almamasını ısrarla istemiş, bu çabasında başarılı olmuş ve böylece Türkiye’ye karşı ayrımcılığa ve ırkçılığa varacak tavırlarına bir yenisini daha eklemişti.  Fransız Anayasa’sında birtakım değişiklikler yapmak suretiyle, Türkiye’nin tam üyeliğini referandumla engelleme gayretlerini sürdüren Fransa Cumhurbaşkanı Sarkozy, 13 Temmuz’da Paris’te bir araya getirdiği, Türkiye dâhil 43 ülkenin devlet ve hükümet başkanlarıyla Akdeniz İçin Birlik Zirvesini gerçekleştirmiştir. Türkiye’nin tam üyeliğine alternatif olarak geliştirildiği konusundaki şüphelerin bir türlü giderilemediği bu oluşum fikri, başlangıçta Sarkozy tarafından Fransa’nın milli çıkarlarını maksimize etmek üzere ortaya atılmış fakat bir AB projesine dönüştürülmek suretiyle inisiyatif büyük ölçüde AB’nin eline geçmiştir. Kuşkusuz, AB’nin Akdeniz İçin Birlik Projesini kendisine mal etmesi, Türkiye açısından belirsizlikleri gidermiş sayılmaz. Nitekim üye yapmayı düşünmediği komşu ülkeleri “en güçlü bağlarla Avrupa yapılarına tam olarak demirlemek” niyetinde olan AB, bu sayede hem kendisine bir güvenlik halkası tesis etme ve hem de bu ülkelerin üyeliğine alternatifler oluşturma hayalini sürdürmektedir.

Ne var ki, Sarkozy’nin büyük umutlar bağladığı AB Dönem Başkanlığı daha başlamadan, Haziran ayında, İrlanda halkının Lizbon Anlaşmasına hayır demesi ile gölgelenmiş oldu. 2005 yılında Fransa ve Hollanda halkı tarafından reddedilen AB Anayasasının kısa bir versiyonu olan ve Avrupa Birliği’nin geleceğinin şekillenmesi ve kurumsallaşmasının tamamlanması bakımından bir nevi yol haritası niteliğindeki Reform Anlaşmasının reddedilmesi, AB’yi yeni bir bunalımın içine sürüklemiş ve dönem başkanlığının Fransa için zor geçeceğinin ilk işaretlerini de vermişti.

Dönem Başkanlığı için 190 milyon Euro’luk bir bütçe hazırlayan Sarkozy’nin tüm planlarını bozan bir diğer gelişme, Ağustos ortalarında Rusya’nın Gürcistan’ı işgal etmesi ile başlayan Kafkasya krizi olmuştur. Rusya’nın adeta dünyaya meydan okurcasına Kafkasya’da başlattığı bu savaş, dünya siyasi gündemini haftalarca meşgul etmiş ve “yeni bir soğuk savaş mı başlıyor?” sorusunu akla getirmişti. AB Başkanı olarak küresel oyunculuğa soyunan Fransa Cumhurbaşkanı Sarkozy, savaşın sona erdirilmesi için derhal Moskova’ya giderek bir çözüm paketini Rusya Devlet Başkanı Medvedev’e sunmuştu.  Sarkozy’nin bu çabaları kuşkusuz sonuç vermişti ancak tüm mesaisini bu konu üzerine harcamak suretiyle, esas gündem maddeleri üzerine yoğunlaşması mümkün olamamıştı.

Daha Kafkasya Savaşının dumanı tüterken bu defa ABD’nin en büyük yatırım bankalarından birisinin batması ile patlak veren küresel finansal kriz dünya gündemine bomba gibi düşmüş, önce Avrupa’yı ve sonra da tüm dünyayı bir ahtapot gibi saran küresel mali kriz, tabiî olarak dünyanın bir numaralı problemi haline gelmiş ve tüm dikkatler bu meselenin çözümü üzerinde yoğunlaşmıştır. Öyle ki, geçtiğimiz Ekim ayında yapılan Kriz zirvesinde Almanya ve Fransa, ortak çözüm paketi konusunda anlaşamamış ve Birliğin bu iki devi arasında ciddi gerginlikler yaşanmıştır. Geldiğimiz noktada ise, küresel mali kriz reel sektörü de etkileyerek ekonomik daralmaya doğru bir seyir izlemeye devam etmekte ve her gün yeni bir çözüm önerisi gündeme getirilmektedir.

Görüldüğü üzere, Sarkozy’nin 6 aylık AB dönem başkanlığı için hazırladığı, özellikle Türkiye’nin tam üyeliğinin engellenmesi yönündeki planları, çalkantılı dünya gündeminin gölgesinde kalmış bulunmaktadır. Ancak, yine de Türkiye açısından belirsizlik devam etmektedir. Çünkü Fransa Türkiye’yi engelleme çabalarından vazgeçmiş değildir ve ilk fırsatta kaldığı yerden devam etmesi sürpriz olmayacaktır.

Bu noktada, Türkiye’nin duruşu önem arz etmektedir. Zira, giderek enerjide dışa bağımlılığı artan ve bu nedenle enerji kaynaklarını çeşitlendirmek isteyen AB’nin, Doğu-Batı arasında enerji koridoru konumunda bulunan Türkiye’ye olan ihtiyacı daha da artacaktır. Kaldı ki, küresel bir oyuncu olma hedefine, Türkiye olmadan ulaşamayacağını iyi bilen AB karşısında Türkiye’nin elinde kozlar mevcuttur. Bu nedenle, AB’nin haksız dayatmalarına karşı sonuna kadar mücadeleye devam edilmesi gerekmektedir.

Netice itibariyle, 11-12 Aralık 2008 tarihlerinde yapılan AB Liderler Zirvesi, özellikle genişleme konusu gündeme alınmadığı için, Kıbrıs Rum Kesimi ile ilişkilerin normalleştirilmesi ve reformların hızlandırılması uyarılarını bir tarafa bıraktığımızda-ki bu uyarılar 2007 aralık Zirvesi’nde de yapılmıştı- Türkiye açısından yeni bir gelişme ortaya koymamıştır. Öyle ki,  Dışişleri Bakanlığı’nca yapılan resmi açıklamada, geçen yıl Bakanlıkça yapılan açıklamanın bu Zirve için de geçerliliğini koruduğu, Hükümetin müzakere sürecinin yürütülmesinde ve reformların sürdürülmesinde kararlı olduğu belirtilmiştir. Liderler, bu zirvede, daha ziyade Lizbon Anlaşması, küresel ekonomik kriz, enerji tasarrufu ve çevre kirliliği ile Avrupa Güvenlik Stratejisi gibi bilhassa kendi iç problemleri üzerinde mesai harcamayı tercih etmişler ve bu konularda önemli kararlar almışlardır. Fransa ise, dönem başkanlığı sürecinde zuhur eden beklenmedik olaylar karşısında, Türkiye’nin üyelik sürecini gündeme getirme fırsatını elde edememiştir.

Ne var ki, bu durum, 2009 yılının Türkiye-AB ilişkileri açısından belirleyici yıl olma özelliğini ortadan kaldırmamaktadır. Nitekim, her fırsatta Kıbrıs Rum Kesimi ile ilişkilerin 2009 Aralık zirvesine kadar ‘normalleştirilmesini’ isteyen AB, aksi halde müzakerelerin tümüyle askıya alınacağı tehdidini sürdürmektedir. 2009 Haziran ayında yapılacak Avrupa Parlamentosu seçimlerine kadar bir çözüme ulaşma hevesine kapılmış olan Kıbrıslı liderlerin ise hüsrana uğramaları kaçınılmaz görünmektedir.

Kıbrıslı Rumların ve arka planda Yunanistan’ın şantajlarına boyun eğmeye devam eden AB, Kıbrıs meselesinin Rumlar lehine çözülmesi için ısrarlarını devam ettirmektedir. 2008 yılının son zirvesinde kendi iç meseleleri üzerinde yoğunlaşan Avrupalı liderler, 2009 yılında, hiç şüphesiz Türkiye’yi gündeme alacaklardır. Dönem başkanlığını Türkiye’ye karşı kullanma fırsatını kaçıran Fransa ise, 2009 yılında Kıbrıs Rum Yönetimini sahneye sürecek olmanın rahatlığı içerisindedir. O halde, Türkiye-AB ilişkilerinin geleceği ile ilgili olarak öngörülü hareket edilmesi, Türkiye’ye karşı uygulanması muhtemel senaryolara karşı müteyakkız olunması ve nihayet Kıbrıs dâhil olmak üzere hiçbir konuda taviz vermeden, tam üyelik müzakere sürecinin tamamen askıya alınmasını önleyecek alternatif çözümler üzerinde çalışılması, son derece yararlı olacaktır.

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