ABD BAŞKANLIK SEÇİMLERİ VE KÜRESEL YANSIMALARI

Yaklaşık iki yıldır devam eden zorlu bir yarışın ardından, nihayet, Demokrat Partili Senatör Barack Obama, Amerikan Seçmeninin %52’lik oyunu alarak ABD’nin 44. Başkanı seçildi. Amerikanın ilk siyah başkanı olmayı başaran, 47 yaşındaki Obama, sadece Amerika’da değil tüm dünyada büyük bir heyecan fırtınası estirmiş bulunmaktadır.  “Bu gece yaptığımız şey, Amerika’ya değişimi getirdi” diyerek, yeni bir Amerika sözü veren, dünyanın süper gücünün bu yeni başkanına, dünya liderlerinden çok olumlu tebrik mesajları yağdı. Kenyalı bir baba ile Amerikalı beyaz bir annenin oğlu olan siyahi Barack Obama’nın Amerikan Başkanı seçilmesi, ırkçı geçmişi göz önüne alındığında, Amerikan demokrasisinin bir mucizesi olarak değerlendirilmeyi hak etmektedir.

Cumhuriyetçi Parti adayı John McCain’in kazandığı 163 seçici delegeye karşı, 349 seçici delege kazanan Barack Obama, 20 Ocak 2009 tarihinde yapılacak yemin töreniyle resmen başkanlık görevini teslim alacak. Temsilciler Meclisi ve Senato’daki sandalye sayısını da artıran Demokrat Parti, yeni dönemde hem yürütme ve hem de yasama erkinin kontrolünü elinde bulundurabilecektir.

Kuşkusuz, Obama’nın seçimi kazanmasının arkasında yatan sebepler, yeni dönemde izlenecek politikaların da ipuçlarını vermektedir. Sekiz yıllık Bush yönetimi sırasında, özellikle de 11 eylül saldırılarının ardından, Amerika’nın neo-con’ları, küresel terörizmle savaş bahanesiyle, tüm dünyada gerginliği had safhaya çıkarmışlar, ABD’yi, adeta bir korku imparatorluğu haline getirmişlerdi. Dünyanın jandarmalığına soyunan ABD, güvenliğe dayanan, sertlik yanlısı politikalarla, sorunları sadece askeri yöntemlerle çözme yoluna gitmiş, bu kapsamda, önce Afganistan’ı, ardından Irak’ı işgal etmiştir. Washington’un müttefiklerine danışmaya bile gerek görmeden, tek yanlı aldığı kararlarla giriştiği bu denizaşırı operasyonlar, Amerika’nın uluslar arası güvenilirliğini ve itibarını büyük ölçüde zayıflatmış, mesela Türkiye’de, Amerika’ya olumlu gözle bakanların oranı %9’a kadar gerilemiştir. Geçtiğimiz Eylül ayında başlayan ve tüm dünyayı etkisi altına alan ve ne zaman sona ereceği de belli olmayan, ABD kaynaklı küresel mali kriz ise, esasen bardağı taşıran son damla olmuştur. İşte, tüm bu sebeplerden dolayı, ekonomik, demokratik ve sosyal alanlarda değişimi zorlamak ve ülkesinin uluslar arası itibarını yeniden kazanmak isteyen Amerikan halkı, aynı zamanda ilk siyahi Başkanını da seçmek suretiyle bir nevi tarihi bir adım atmıştır.

Peki Demokrat Obama’nın seçilmesi dünyayı ve Türk-Amerikan ilişkilerini nasıl etkileyecektir? Amerikan ve dünya toplumlarının, bu küresel liderden beklentileri, bir hayal kırıklığı ile sonuçlanabilir mi?

Öncelikle, “değişim” sloganını öne çıkararak seçimi kazanan Obama’ya sadece Amerika’lıların değil tüm dünya vatandaşlarının büyük umutlar bağladığını söylememiz gerekir. Öyle ki, dünya liderleri, yeni küresel başkanı tebrik etmek için adeta yarış içine girmişlerdir. Bu kapsamda, 1979’dan beri ilk defa olarak, bir İran Cumhurbaşkanı, Mahmud Ahmedinejad, yeni seçilen bir ABD Başkanı’na mektup yazarak tebriklerini bildirmiştir. Kuşkusuz, bu durum, son yıllarda uygulanan Amerikan politikalarının, dünya kamuoyu üzerinde ne kadar ağır baskılar oluşturduğunu ve değişim beklentilerinin şiddetini de ortaya koymaktadır.

“İki tane savaş var, gezegenimiz tehlikede ve finansal bir krizin içindeyiz” diyen Obama, öncelikle ele alacağı meselelerin de bir listesini yapmış oldu. Bu durumda, yeni ABD Başkanının ilk olarak, küresel mali krizi çözmek için kolları sıvayacağı, aynı zamanda Afganistan ve Irak politikalarında da bazı değişikliklere gideceği beklenmektedir.

Ne var ki, Obaman’nın seçilmesi, bugünden yarına etkisini gösterebilecek bir değişimi beraberinde getiremeyecektir. Nitekim Obama’da “Önümüzdeki yol uzun ve zorlu olacak. Belki önümüzdeki 4 yılda istediğimiz yere gelemeyeceğiz. Ama size söz veriyorum, bir
gün hedeflerimize ulaşacağız” diyerek, Amerikalılara, kendisinden beklenen değişimin, öyle kolay olmayacağı mesajını vermiştir. Yeni bir dünya düzeni kurma beklentileri konusunda ise, Obama’nın dünyaya verdiği mesajlar, esas olarak, daha çok demokrasi, barış ve yardımlaşma konuları üzerinde yoğunlaşmaktadır. Fakat, Amerikan ulusal çıkarlarında bir değişiklik olmayacağını dikkate aldığımızda, dış politikada, üslup ve yaklaşım değişikliği dışında önemli bir yenilik beklenmemelidir.

Şüphesiz, Bush yönetiminin kabadayı, tek yanlı, saldırgan ve tüm diğer devletlere tepeden bakan anlayışı yerine, daha ılımlı, müttefiklerinin görüşlerini dikkate alan ve diplomasi ağırlıklı çalışan bir yönetim gelecektir. Ancak, “ABD’de bugün yeni bir liderlik doğdu. dünyaya zarar vermek isteyenleri yenecekleri ve barışın yanında olanları da destekleyeceklerini, demokrasi, özgürlük, fırsat, umut gibi ideallerin peşinde gideceklerini” ifade eden Obama’nın, bir yandan barışı desteklemekten bahsederken, bir yandan da savaşı çağrıştıran mesajlar veriyor olması, dikkat çekicidir. Kuşkusuz, dünyaya zarar vermek isteyenlerin kimler olduğunun tayini konusunda, ABD’nin vereceği tek taraflı kararlar en büyük tartışma konusu olacaktır.

Demokrat Barack Obama’nın Başkan seçilmesi kuşkusuz, bölgesel bir güç olan Türkiye’nin, ABD ile olan  ilişkilerini de etkileyecektir. Özellikle de Irak, Kıbrıs ve Ermeni meseleleri konusunda, problem yaşam ihtimali mevcuttur. Bu noktada, öncelikle, Obama’nın, dış politikada, Irak yaklaşımında ciddi bir değişikliğe gideceği ve bunun da en çok Türkiye’yi etkileyeceği aşikardır. 2011 e kadar büyük oranda asker çekmekle beraber, Irak’ın Şii, Sünni ve Kürt bölgeleri olmak üzere üçe bölünmesi gündeme gelebilecektir. Böyle bir durumda, Türkiye’nin sürece dahil olması ve değişik senaryolar üzerinde çalışarak, inisiyatif alması son derece yararlı olacaktır. Türkiye, ABD’nin yeni Irak politikalarında, bu ülke ile işbirliği içinde olabilir ve tezlerini daha iyi kabul ettirebilirse, güvenlik kaygılarını önemli ölçüde bertaraf etmesi mümkün olabilecektir.

Öte yandan, ABD Ermeni Ulusal Komitesi (ANCA), Obama’nın,  1 Kasım’da Ermenilere açıklama göndererek, ‘Ermeni soykırımı’ iddialarını tanıma sözü verdiğini ileri sürmektedir. 13 Kasım’da ABD’ye gidecek olan Başbakan Recep Tayyip Erdoğan da, “Seçim kampanyalarında işlenen bazı tezleri seçim kampanyasına yönelik kalan tezler olarak değerlendiriyoruz. Orada kalır diye düşünüyoruz.” demek suretiyle, Obama’nın sözde Ermeni soykırımına ilişkin tavırlarıyla ilgili endişelerini dile getirmiştir. Kuşkusuz, Obama’nın, ilerleyen günlerde, yeterince bilgilendirilmek suretiyle, bu konudaki yaklaşımını değiştirmesi mümkün olabilecektir.

Her ne kadar, “Greek News” adlı haftalık dergi, Obama’nın, Kıbrıs’taki Türk askeri varlığından ‘işgal’ olarak söz ettiğini yazmış ise de, Obama seçim bildirgesinde, ‘işgal’ benzeri bir ifade kullanmamıştır. Bununla birlikte, Fener Rum Patriği’nin “ekümenik” olarak tanınmasını ve Heybeliada Ruhban Okulu‘nun açılmasını destekleyen Obama’nın, yeni dönemde, Kıbrıs konusunda, Türkiye üzerindeki baskıları artırması muhtemel görünmektedir.

Türkiye’nin AB üyeliğini destekleyen Obama’nın, bu konuda herhangi bir politika değişikliğine gitmesi beklenmemektedir.

Diğer taraftan, barış için gerekirse İran liderleriyle koşulsuz görüşebileceği şeklinde mesajlar veren Obama, savaş yerine diplomasi yollarını tercih edeceğine dair umutları artırmaktadır. Şüphesiz, bu yaklaşım, bölgesinde barış ve istikrarı sağlamak için gayret sarf eden Türkiye için son derece yararlı olacaktır.

Her ne kadar, Türkiye-ABD ilişkileri Başkandan başkana bazı değişikliklere uğramış olsa da, geçmişteki her ABD Başkanı Türkiye’nin önemini anlamakta gecikmemiş ve işbirliği içinde çalışmayı becerebilmiştir. Her ne kadar, yardımcısı Senatör Joe Biden, Ermeni, Irak ve Kürt  meselelerinde Türkiye’ye karşı birtakım önyargılara sahip olsa da, henüz Türkiye’yi iyi tanımayan Barack Obama’nın da kısa sürede, Türkiye’nin önemini fark ederek, buna göre politikalar üreteceğini düşünmekteyiz. Bu anlamda, Cumhurbaşkanı Abdullah Gül’ün, seçimlerin hemen ardından Barack Obama’ya gönderdiği tebrik mektubu isabetli olmuştur. Cumhurbaşkanı Gül bu mektupta, iki ülke arasındaki ortaklığa dikkat çekmiştir. Zira, bölgesel ve küresel barış ve istikrarın korunması, uluslar arası yardımlaşmanın yaygılaştırılması alanlarında son yıllarda ciddi atılımlar yapan Türkiye’nin, özellikle terörizmle mücadele konusunda  ABD ile işbirliği içinde çalışması, uygun olacaktır kanaatindeyiz.

Obama’nın ABD Başkanı seçilmesi, finansal piyasaların aradığı güveni sağlayarak, küresel mali krizin reel sektöre yansımasını önleyebilecek ve dolayısıyla ABD ekonomisinin  toparlanmasına yol açabilecektir. Küresel finansal krizin etkilerinin azalmasıyla, dünya ticareti artacak ve bu da Türkiye’nin dış ticaretine olumlu bir etki yapacaktır.  Amerikan ekonomisinin içine düştüğü durgunluktan kurtulmasıyla, son yıllarda bu ülkeyle ithalat lehine gelişen dış ticaretimiz, ihracat lehine bir seyir izlemeye başlayacaktır.

Netice itibariyle, Demokrat Partili Barack Obama’nın ABD Başkanı olarak seçilmesiyle birlikte, tüm dünyada bir değişim coşkusu yaşanmış, gerek Amerikalılar ve gerekse dünyanın farklı bölgelerinde yaşayan insanlar barış, demokrasi, yardımlaşma ve toplumsal refah alanında ciddi beklentiler içine girmişlerdir. İnsanların bu yüksek beklentilerinin bir hayal kırıklığı ile sonuçlanıp sonuçlanmayacağını görmek için biraz beklememiz gerekecektir.  Ancak, şu bir gerçektir ki, 8 yıllık gergin Bush yönetiminin ardından, dünya büyük bir rahatlama hissetmiştir.

Askeri, siyasi ve ekonomik alanda dünyanın süper gücü olan ABD’nin yeni seçilen Başkanı’nın, barış ve huzurun hâkim olduğu yeni bir dünya düzeni kurulmasına önayak olmasını umut etmekteyiz. Bölgesinin en istikrarlı ülkesi olan ve küresel barış için ciddi atılımlar yapan Türkiye’nin ise, iyi komşuluk ilişkileri temelinde, daha bağımsız, daha geniş ve çeşitlendirilmiş bir dış politika yürüterek, ABD ile stratejik ortaklık seviyesini yükseltmesi ve bu vesileyle, özellikle Irak, Kıbrıs ve Ermeni meselelerinin çözümü için, bu yeni dönemi bir fırsata dönüştürmesi mümkün olabilecektir.

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ABD BAŞKANLIK SEÇİMLERİ VE KÜRESEL YANSIMALARI” hakkında 1.670 yorum

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