2000/2001 EKONOMİK KRİZLERİ VE GÜNÜMÜZE YANSIMALARI

Divan Dergisi, Sayı: 5

Nejat ÇOĞAL

Gümrük Muhafaza Başkontrolörü

(A.B.D.’de, University of Illinois’te , finans mastırı yapmıştır)  

2000/2001 EKONOMİK KRİZLERİ VE GÜNÜMÜZE YANSIMALARI

1. Giriş

 Enflasyon 1970 yılından bu yana Ülkemizin yaşadığı en önemli ekonomik problem olmuş, bu nedenle Türkiye, IMF ile birlikte birçok anti-enflasyonist programa imza atmıştır. Bu dönemde, Türkiye mali piyasalarını ve sermaye hareketlerini serbestleştirmiştir. Çoğu başarılı olamayan bu programların başarıya ulaşabilmesini sağlamak amacıyla, ekonominin serbestleştirilmesi ve istikrara kavuşturabilmesi yönünde, son 30 yılda büyük gayretler sarf edilmiş, döviz kuru, özellikle nominal döviz kuru politikaları, bu ekonomik istikrar programlarının çoğunda anahtar rol oynamıştır.

Bu kapsamda, Ülkede yaşanan büyük bir depremin sosyo-ekonomik hasarlarını tamir etmekle yüz yüze kalmış olan Türkiye, 1999’da yine IMF destekli yeni bir istikrar programını başlatmıştır. Döviz kurunu esas alan enflasyonla mücadele programı, enflasyonu (TÜFE) 2000 yılı sonuna kadar %25, 2001 yılı sonunda %10–12 ve 2002 yılı sonuna kadar ise  %5–7 seviyelerine çekmeyi amaçlamaktaydı. Ancak, programın başlamasından yaklaşık 11 ay sonra Türk Ekonomisi, Kasım 2000’de bir likidite krizi, Şubat 2001’de ise bir döviz kriziyle karşı karşıya kalmıştır.

Çalışmamızda ilk olarak; Türkiye Ekonomisinin son 30 yıllık geçmişi kısaca gözden geçirilecektir. Bunu, 2000 yılı enflasyonla mücadele programının ana karakteristiklerinin özetlenmesi ve söz konusu programın yol açtığı bazı ciddi ekonomik gelişmelerin tartışılması takip edecektir. Daha sonra, 2000/2001 ekonomik krizleri ve krizden günümüze kadar olan gelişmeler kısaca ele alınacak ve son olarak ulaştığımız sonuçlar ifade edilmeye çalışılacaktır.

2. Türk Ekonomisine Genel Bir Bakış

Yüksek enflasyon 1970’den beri Türkiye’nin ana ekonomik problemi olmuş ve ülkemiz bu dönemde birkaç başarısız enflasyonla mücadele programını tecrübe etmiştir. Bankacılık sistemi çok zayıf ve sermaye piyasası ve menkul kıymetler borsası yok denecek kadar küçüktü. 1979’da, Türkiye derin bir borç krizi ile karşı karşıya kalmış ve IMF ile ilk stand-by programını imzalamıştır. 1980’li yıllarda, Hükümet bir ekonomik paketi uygulamaya koymuş ve bu programla Türkiye, dış ekonomik işlemlerini serbestleştirmeyi başarabilmiştir.

Program, olağanüstü ölçüde bir devalüasyonla birlikte başlamış (TRL/USD paritesi  47.7’den 70’e yükseltilerek yaklaşık %50 oranında bir devalüasyon gerçekleştirilmiştir), faiz oranlarında artış, ihracat sübvansiyonları, kamu iktisadi kuruluşlarından gelen olağanüstü fiyat artışları ve hükümet sübvansiyonlarının çoğundan vazgeçme taahhüdü, söz konusu programın başlıca karakteristikleri olarak göze çarpmıştır. Yine aynı dönemde, kotaların çoğu ortadan kaldırılmış, ülke parasının değeri düşürülmüş ve sonuç olarak döviz sistemi tümüyle serbestleştirilmiştir.

 Böylece, 1980’lerde Türk Ekonomisi hem dahili ve hem de harici olarak tümüyle serbestleştirilerek, içe piyasaya dönük ithal ikamesi politikası terk edilmiş ve ihracata dayalı büyüme politikası benimsenmiştir. Aynı yıllarda, Hükümet bankalara döviz işlemleri yapma iznini vermiş;  bankaları ve onların kısa dönem likidite ihtiyaçlarını karşılamak üzere İnterbank Para Piyasası oluşturulmuş; Sermaye Piyasası Kurulu teşkil edilmiş; İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası yeniden açılmış; sonuç olarak Türk ekonomisinin finansal derinliği artırılmıştır.

 

  Grafik 1: Gayri Safi Milli Hasıla (GSMH) Artış Hızı

Kaynak: TÜİK, DPT, HM 

1990’lı yıllarda, Gayri Safi Milli Hâsılanın (GSMH) , değişken bir yapı gösteren yabancı sermaye girişinin etkilerine, 1980’li yıllara kıyasla daha fazla bağlı bir hale geldiği görülmektedir. 1994 yılında yaşanan finansal krizle birlikte, enflasyon oranı 3 rakamlı bir sayıya ulaşmış ve nominal kur bir günde %39 değer kaybetmiştir. Ülkeden büyük miktarlarda sermaye çıkışına yol açan bu krizin hemen ardından Türkiye- IMF arasında yeni bir ekonomik istikrar programı imzalanmıştır. Söz konusu Stand-by anlaşmasının desteği ile önemli ölçüde yabancı sermaye girişi başlamış ve Türk ekonomisi 1995–1997 döneminde yıllık %7’den daha yüksek bir kalkınma hızını gerçekleştirebilmiştir. Bu dönemde, Merkez Bankası reel döviz kuru politikasını etkili bir şekilde takip etmiş ve 1994’teki yüksek devalüasyonun etkisiyle ihracat rakamlarında hızlı bir iyileşme sağlanmıştır. Bununla birlikte, hızlı ekonomik büyümeye rağmen, dış ticaret dengesi istikrarlı bir seviyede tutulabilmiş ancak, Asya Krizi nedeniyle, büyüme hızı 1998’de %3,1’e gerilemiştir.

 

Tablo 1: Başlıca Ekonomik Göstergeler (1999–2004)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
 GSMH Artış hızı (%)  -6.1  6.3  -9.5  7.9  5.9  9.9
 Toptan Eşya Fiyatları (%)  62.9  32.7  88.6  30.8  13.9  13.8
Ağırlıklı Mevduat Faiz Oranları (Vadeli)  46.7  45.6  62.5  48.2  28.6  22.1
Fiili Yabancı Sermaye Girişi (Milyon Dolar)  813  1,707  3,374  622  745  1,245
 TRL/USD Değişim Oranı  60.9  48.5  96.5  22.9  -0.8  -0.04
 Cari İşlemler Hesabı  -1,344  -9,819  -3,390  -1,522  -7,905  -15,604

Kaynak: TCMB, DTM, DİE, HM  

1997 yılında yaşanan Doğu Asya Krizi ve 1998 yılında yaşanan Rusya Krizinin olumsuz etkileriyle mücadele etmek zorunda kalan Türkiye, 1999’da meydana gelen ve ekonomik ve sosyal hayatı sarsan depremlerle daha da güç koşullar içerisine sürüklenmiştir. Yüksek enflasyon ve reel faiz oranları, artan kamu açıkları nedeniyle bozulan ekonomik istikrarı yeniden sağlayabilmek amacıyla, Kasım 1999’da, Hükümet yeni bir enflasyonla mücadele programını başlatmış ve IMF ile yeni bir stand-by anlaşması imzalanmıştır.

Program, enflasyon oranını 2002 yılı sonuna kadar tek rakamlı bir sayıya indirmeyi hedeflemiştir. Bu programdan, o zamana kadar Türkiye’de uygulanan döviz kuruna endeksli ilk ekonomik program olarak bahsedebiliriz. Söz konusu 2000 yılı enflasyonla mücadele programını etkili kılabilmek için, döviz kuru sabitlenerek ileriye dönük bir döviz kuru takvimi ilan edilmiştir. Ayrıca, bir çıkış stratejisi tespit edilmiş buna göre; Temmuz 2001’den sonra simetrik ve merkezi bir döviz kuru etrafında dalgalanabilen esnek bir kur rejiminin mümkün olabileceği öngörülmüştür.

Başlangıçta, program başarılı gibi görünmekteydi. Yani, hemen hemen tüm kur uygulamaları, mali ve yapısal reformlar programa uygun gidiyordu ve ekonomide herhangi bir sterilizasyon söz konusu değildi. Ancak, Kasım 2000’de, ekonomik istikrar programından tam 11 ay sonra Türkiye bir finansal kriz ile karşı karşıya kalmıştır.

3. 2000 Yılı Enflasyonla Mücadele Programının Ana Karakteristikleri

2000–2002 yıllarını kapsayan söz konusu Enflasyonla Mücadele Programı (1999’da Türk Hükümeti tarafından IMF’ye sunulan Niyet Mektubu) temel olarak dört ana enstrümana dayanıyordu:

a. Önceden ilan edilen, nominal döviz kuru hedefi

b. Sıkı maliye politikaları

c. Merkez Bankası’nın bir Currency Board gibi hareket etmesi öngörülmekteydi. Yani, para arzındaki genişleme sadece Merkez Bankası’nın bilânçosunda yer alan net yabancı varlıkların pozisyonuna dayandırılacaktı. Ayrıca, sterilizasyon yapmama kuralı gereği, Merkez Bankası ihtiyari para politikaları uygulamayacak, bunun yerine, para arzı sadece piyasa koşulları tarafından belirlenecekti.

d. Yapısal reformlar

2000–2002 döneminde, parasal taban, döviz kurundaki günlük değer kaybı ve mali dengeler üzerinde özel hedefler uygulamaya konulmuştur. Tüm bu hedefler belirli bir takvim çerçevesinde önceden ilan ediliyor ve bunlar IMF yetkililerinin uygulama döneminde yaptıkları başarılı ziyaretlerde takip aracı olarak kullanılan “performans kriterleri “ olarak tanımlanıyordu.

Programa göre, enflasyon 2002 yılı sonuna kadar aşağı çekilecekti. Buna göre, son on yılda ortalama %80 civarında seyreden Toptan Eşya Fiyat Endeksi (TEFE) 2000 yılı sonuna kadar %20 oranına düşürülecekti. (Tüketici fiyatlarında hedef ise %25 idi). Söz konusu hedefler 2001 yılı için TEFE’de %10, TÜFE’de %12; 2002 yılı sonuna kadar ise sırasıyla %5 ve %7 idi.

Söz konusu para ve döviz kuru programı, Merkez Bankası’nın uluslararası rezervlerinde bir taban değeri ve ayrıca, net yurtiçi varlıklarda bir tavan değerini performans kriteri olarak benimsemiştir. Her üç aylık dönemde, net yurtiçi varlıkların, bir önceki çeyrek dönemin mevcut para tabanının %5’i oranında bir band içerisinde dalgalanmasına izin verilmiş ancak çeyrek dönem sonu değerleri önceden kararlaştırılmıştır.

Bir yandan ekonomik aktiviteler artarken, dış ticaret açığının 2000 yılında Gayri Safi Yurt İçi Hasılanın %0.5’inden %1.5-2’sine kadar, 2001 ve 2002 yıllarında da benzer şekilde büyümesi hedeflenmiştir.

Ayrıca, Toplam Borç/GSYİH oranının bir miktar azaltılarak %58’den 2001 yılı sonunda %56.5’e, 2002 yılı sonuna kadar da %54.75 oranına çekilmesi hedeflenmiştir.

Öte yandan, döviz sepeti içerisinde yer alan döviz kurlarının ileriye dönük olarak takip edeceği yol, IMF İcra Kurulu toplantısı öncesinde ilan edilecekti. Önceden ilan edilecek Döviz kurunun takip edeceği yol 1 Ocak 2000–31 Aralık 2000 tarihleri arasını kapsayacaktı. Bu dönem içinde, TL’nin değer kaybı TEFE’deki artışa uygun olarak %20 olması hedeflenmişti.

Söz konusu döviz kuru rejiminin açıklanmasından itibaren 18 aylık bir süre içerisinde, önceden açıklanan döviz kuru takviminin etrafında herhangi bir band olmayacaktı. Temmuz 2001’den itibaren ise, daha esnek bir döviz kuru rejimine yavaş yavaş geçilecekti.

Diğer taraftan, her üç aylık dönem sonunda,  Merkez Bankası’nın net yurt içi varlıkları toplamı Aralık 1999 seviyesini aşamayacaktı (performans kriteri).

Ayrıca, program, enflasyonla mücadele ve döviz kuru politikalarını gerçekleştirebilmek için bazı enstrümanları da hedef almıştır: Gelir dağılımı ve yapısal reformlar (özellikle mali sektörde, tarım politikalarında, sosyal güvenlik reformu, mali yönetim ve şeffaflık, vergi politikası ve yönetimi, özelleştirme ve sermaye piyasası, bankacılık sisteminin güçlendirilmesi ) bu politika araçlarına örnek olarak verilebilir.

 

4.  2000 Yılı Enflasyonla Mücadele Programının Yol Açtığı Başlıca Makroekonomik Gelişmeler

 

Kasım 1999 başlarında, Moody’s Türkiye’nin görünüşünü positive çevirdi. Bu olumlu başlangıç için iki önemli sebep vardı: Birincisi, istikrar programından beklentiler, ikincisi ise Türkiye- Avrupa Birliği arasındaki ilişkilerin iyileşmesi beklentileri idi. Aralık 1999’un ilk yarısında bu beklentiler teyit edildi. 9 Aralık 1999’da Türkiye IMF ile yeni bir niyet mektubuna imza atmış; 10-11 Aralık’ta düzenlenen Helsinki Zirvesi’nde Türkiye, Avrupa Birliği’nin genişleme sürecinde resmen aday üye olarak ilan edilmiştir.

Diğer taraftan, program ana hatlarıyla enflasyonu düşürmeyi hedefliyordu. Son 30 yıldaki en düşük seviyesinde olmasına rağmen, 2000 yılı sonunda, enflasyon oranındaki değişme programın amacına ulaşamamıştır. Diğer bir ifadeyle, hem TEFE ve hem de TÜFE özellikle 2000 yılının ikinci yarısında önemli ölçüde aşağı çekilmiştir. Fiyat endekslerindeki aylık artışlar, uygulama döneminde esas alınan döviz sepetinin (1 USD + 0.77 EURO) uğradığı değer kaybından daha yüksek olarak gerçekleşmiştir. Bu da, Türkiye’nin başlıca ticaret yaptığı ülke paralarına karşı Türk Lirası’nın aşırı değerlenmesi anlamına gelmektedir. Yıllık enflasyon TEFE’de %33, TÜFE’de %39 olarak gerçekleşmiştir.

Bununla birlikte, değişik talep faktörleri de kararlı fiyat artışları üzerinde önemli bir rol oynamıştır. Döviz kuru riski, önceden belirlenen 18 aylık takvim ile ortadan kaldırılmıştı. Bu, ayrıca, ülke riskini de azaltarak, yabancı yatırımcılara piyasa faizleri üzerinden arbitraj yapma fırsatını vermiştir. Böylece, sermaye girişi hızlandırıldı. Ayrıca, reel faiz oranlarındaki ciddi düşüş, geleceğe dönük toplam tüketim harcamaları ve yatırım talebinin telafi edilmesine yol açmış, bu durum fiyatlar  üzerinde sert bir talep baskısını da beraberinde getirmiştir.

 Grafik 2: Reel Döviz Kurları

 

Kaynak: TCMB

Bir taraftan yabancı sermaye girişi devam ederken, enflasyonla mücadele programı herhangi bir sterilizasyon girişimi gerektirmediği için, para piyasasının likiditesi artmış, faiz oranları düşmüş, bu gelişmeler sonucunda, yatırımcıların kazanç eğrisinin yönü aşağıya çevrilmiş, borç stokları üzerindeki geleceğe dönük faiz yükü azaltılmış, sonuç olarak borç geri ödeme riski azalarak ilave sermaye girişi cesaretlendirilmiştir. Ancak, faiz oranı hedefine ulaşılamamıştır.

Grafik 3: Ağırlıklı Mevduat Faiz Oranları

 

Kaynak: HM

Faiz oranlarındaki düşüş ve kredi imkânlarındaki artış, yatırım ve tüketim harcamalarının artmasına yol açmış, böylece ciddi bir ekonomik büyüme mümkün olabilmiştir.

Diğer taraftan,  dış ticaret açığındaki büyük genişleme ihracatın azalmasından değil, ithalatta meydana gelen ciddi artışlardan kaynaklandığını söylememiz mümkündür.

Bu arada, yabancı sermaye girişinde meydana gelen artışlar sadece cari işlemler açığını değil bununla birlikte iç ekonominin likiditesini finanse etmek için de bir araç olarak kullanılmıştır. Sterilizasyon yapmama kuralı ve Merkez Bankası’nın net yurtiçi varlıklar pozisyonu üzerindeki kısıtlamalar neticesinde, yabancı sermaye girişleri net yurtiçi varlıklarla beraber parasal tabanın genişlemesine de yol açmıştır. Kur riskinin bertaraf edilmesi ile ikiye katlanan söz konusu ekonomik gelişmeler, özellikle programın ilk aşamalarında, reel faiz oranlarında sert bir düşüşe sebep olmuştur.

 

Hazinenin kullandığı borçlanma enstrümanları için öngörülen faiz oranlarındaki düşüş olağanüstü bir gelişme olarak değerlendirilebilir. Çünkü Devlet borçlanma araçlarının faiz getirisi, 1994 ekonomik krizi sonrası dönemde %100–120 civarında seyrederken, 2000 yılı enflasyonla mücadele programının daha ilk aşamalarında bu getiri oranı %30-40’a kadar düşürülebilmişti. Bunun, ekonomik programın piyasada oluşturduğu güven ortamı ile ortadan kaldırılan döviz kuru riskinin bir sonucu olduğunu söylememiz mümkündür. Sonuçta, hem mevduat faiz oranları ve hem de gecelik İnterbank faiz oranları bu gelişmeyi takip etmiş, böylece 2000 yılının ilk üç çeyreğinde mali piyasalar marjinal olarak reel faiz oranları ile faaliyet göstermiştir.

Grafik 4: Tüketici Fiyatları Endeksi

 

Kaynak: HM

 

Ayrıca, faiz maliyetlerinde beklenmeyen ani düşüşler, transfer harcamalarında önemli bir tasarrufu da beraberine getirmiştir. Hatta,  konsolide bütçe içerisindeki faiz harcamaları reel açıdan 1990 yılı seviyesinin %25 üzerinde gerçekleşse de, program hedeflerinin %3.5 gerisinde kalmıştır.

 

5. Ekonomik Krizlere Genel Bir Bakış a. Kasım 2000 Krizi

Uluslararası Para Fonu’nun (IMF) desteklediği üç yıllık ekonomik istikrar programının uygulamaya konulmasından yaklaşık 11 ay sonra Türkiye, söz konusu enflasyonla mücadele ve mali uyum programının uygulanabilirliğini tehdit edecek düzeyde ciddi bir likidite kriziyle karşı karşıya kalmıştır. Sadece 20 Kasım 1999–5 Aralık 2000 döneminde 6.4 milyar Dolar net sermaye çıkışı olmuş, 1 Aralık 2000 itibariyle İnterbank gecelik faiz oranları %1700 seviyesine yükselmiştir. Çok geçmeden IMF devreye girmiş, bir ödemeler dengesi krizini takip edebilecek spekülatif atakları önlemek amacıyla, Merkez Bankası’nın döviz rezervlerini artırmaya yönelik, 10 Milyar Dolarlık bir finansman paketini 6 Aralık’ta ilan etmiştir. Ancak bu şekilde kriz çözülememiş, sadece ileri bir tarihe ertelenebilmiştir. Bahse konu likidite krizinin bir sonucu olarak, 2000 yılı değerlerine kıyasla, daha yüksek faiz oranları, daha düşük büyüme oranı ve daha düşük mali fazla 2001 yılı için başlıca beklentiler haline gelir. Bununla birlikte, ekonomi kurmayları, bankacılık sektörünün acil problemlerini çözmek ve telekomünikasyon, ulaştırma ve enerji sektörlerinde özelleştirmeyi hızlandırmak için görüş birliğine varmışlardır.

Hükümet, 18 aylık dönem için önceden ilan edilmiş olan sabit döviz kuru politikası üzerinde kararlılığını tekrarlamış ancak, kriz söz konusu döviz kuru politikasının güvenilirliği ve sürekliliği hakkında süregelen şüpheleri daha da artırmıştır. Enflasyon karşısında TL’nin oldukça yavaş değer kaybetmesi cari işlemler açığının büyümesine katkıda bulunmuş, bu kötüye gidiş de ayrıca, uygulanan döviz kuru politikasına olan güveni sarsmıştır.

Grafik 5: Cari İşlemler Hesabı

 

Kaynak: DTM

b. Şubat 2001 Krizi

İkinci ekonomik kriz, 19 Şubat 2001 tarihinde yapılan MGK toplantısında, Cumhurbaşkanı ile Başbakan arasında yaşanan gerginlik neticesinde patlak vermiştir. Bu kriz, tam da Kasım 2000 krizinin etkisiyle güvenin sarsıldığı ve ekonomik reform programının üzerindeki şüphelerin arttığı bir dönemde meydana gelmiştir. Söz konusu tartışma, gecelik faiz oranlarının yukarıya doğru sıçramasında ve uluslar arası rezervlerin azalmasında ani ve sert bir etki yapmıştır( 21 Şubat itibariyle gecelik faiz oranları %7500 kadar çıkmıştır). 22 Şubat’ta, Hükümet uygulanan döviz kuru politikasına bağlı kalamayacağına karar vererek, TL’nin dalgalanmasına izin verir. TRL/USD Paritesi 1.000.000 TL’nin üzerine çıkar ve izleyen dönemde de olağanüstü değişken bir yapıya kavuşur. Örneğin, Nisan ayının son iki iş gününde değişim oranının %25’i geçmesi hiç de şaşırtıcı olmamıştır.

Nihayet, enflasyonla mücadele programı, önceleri yabancı sermaye girişi ve kontrol altında tutulamayan dış açık, sonuçta ise yabancı sermaye çıkışı ve bir finansal krizin sadece bir yıl içerisinde peş peşe gerçekleşmesine yol açmıştır. IMF bir önceki modeli derhal bir kenara atmış ve son derece sert bir ekonomik daralma paketini uygulama alanına sokarak, Türk ekonomisinin barış döneminde yaşanan en derin ekonomik durgunluk içerisine girmesine yol açmıştır. 1999 yılı rakamlarını 1999 yılı rakamları ile karşılaştırdığımızda, IMF’nin müdahalesi, daha yüksek enflasyon, çökme aşamasına gelen bir finansal sistem, ciddi bir borç geri ödeme darboğazı ve derin bir ekonomik durgunluk olarak Türk Ekonomisine yansımıştır.

Başlangıçta enflasyonun hızı yavaşlatılabilmiş ancak, döviz kuru hareketlerinin gerisinde kalınması suretiyle TL’nin aşırı değerlenmesine sebebiyet verilmiştir. Yükselen talep ve aşırı değerlenmiş ulusal para, istikrarsız bir dış ticaret ve yüksek cari işlemler açığı problemlerinin başlıca sebebi olmuştur. Bir yandan cari işlemler açığının kabul edilebilirliği sorgulanmaya başlanmışken, diğer taraftan ekonomi dış kaynaklardan gelebilecek spekülatif ataklara karşı korumasız bir konuma gelmiştir. Nihayet, Kasım 2000 ve Şubat 2001’de TL’ye karşı yapılan saldırılar sonucunda, enflasyonla mücadele ve istikrar programı çökmüş; rezervlerin önemli ölçüde tüketilmesi ve 4 rakamlı faiz oranları, önceden ilan edilmiş olan kur takviminin devam ettirilmesini mümkün kılamamıştır. 2001 yılında ekonomi %9.5 oranında daralmış, hızla yükselen reel faizler ve yüksek oranlı devalüasyon, finansal sistemi ciddi bir bankacılık krizinin içine doğru iterek bazı bankaların Tasarruf Mevduatı Sigorta Fonu’na (TMSF) devredilmesine yol açmıştır.

6. Krizden Günümüze Yansımalar

Krizin etkisiyle birlikte, enflasyon TEFE’de, 2000 yılında %32.7’den 2001 yılı sonunda %88.6’ya kadar yükselmiştir. Krizler sonrasında ekonomik programda revizyona gidilmiş, uygulanan döviz kuru politikası terk edilerek, döviz kurunun serbestçe dalgalanmasına izin verilmiştir.

Krizin ardından kurun önemli ölçüde değer kaybetmesi, dış ticarette rekabet gücünün artmasını sağlamış ve ekonomi 2002 yılından itibaren toparlanma eğilimine girmiştir.

IMF-Türkiye arasında, 2002–2004 yıllarını kapsayan yeni bir stand-by anlaşması imzalanarak hedefler revize edilmiş, uygulanan yeni ekonomik tedbirlerle, göstergeler hızla iyileşmeye başlamıştır.

2005 yılı itibariyle enflasyon, ÜFE’ de %2.66’ya, TÜFE’de ise %7.72’ye kadar düşürülebilmiş; ağırlıklı mevduat faiz oranları ise 2001 yılındaki %62.5 seviyesinden, 2005 yılının Kasım ayı itibariyle %19.9 seviyesine kadar gerilemiştir. Ekonomi, 2001 yılında %9.5 oranında daralırken, 2002, 2003 ve 2004 yıllarında sırasıyla %7.9, %5.9 ve %9.9 oranlarında büyüme kaydetmiştir.

Öte yandan, Cari İşlemler Hesabı 2005 yılında 22.8 milyar Dolar açık vermiştir. Aşırı değerlenmiş YTL ile yüksek reel faiz oranları, son yıllarda artış eğilimi gösteren cari açık üzerinde baskı oluşturarak ileride bir ödemeler dengesi probleminin yaşanmasını muhtemel kılmaktadır.

Diğer taraftan 2006’nın ikinci çeyreğinde ekonomide yaşanan dalgalanmalar kimi çevrelerce mini bir kriz olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Bu dönemde döviz fiyatlarında ciddi artışlar olmuş, Merkez Bankası bir oturumda faizleri 1.75 puan birden artırmış, İMKB endeksi ise önemli ölçüde değer kaybetmiştir. Ülkede bulunan sıcak paranın yön değiştirdiği endişelerini artıran bu hareketlenmelerde, dış piyasalardaki olumsuz gelişmelerin de (Dünya borsalarının değer kaybetmesi, petrol fiyatlarındaki artışlar, ABD’nin faizleri artırması, Kuzey Kore’nin nükleer füze denemesi gibi) etkisinin olduğunu söylememiz mümkündür. Merkez Bankası bu dönemde, faiz artırımını yeterli görmeyerek, ayrıca, piyasaya büyük miktarlarda döviz satarak da müdahalede bulunmuştur. Ancak, geldiğimiz noktada bu müdahalelerin kısmen başarılı olduğunu söyleyebilmekteyiz.Sonuçta, dalgalı kur sisteminin uygulandığı ekonomilerde, döviz fiyatlarının ani ve yüksek değişimler haricinde aşağı-yukarı dalgalanması normal kabul edilebilmektedir.

Her ne kadar, döviz piyasasında yaşanan dalgalanmaları, aşırı değerlenmiş YTL fiyatının dengelenmesi yönünde hareketler olarak değerlendirilse de, bu noktada, döviz kuru ve para politikalarının gözden geçirilerek, mali disiplinin daha da güçlendirilmesinin, hem ihracatın desteklenmesi ve hem de potansiyel bir ödemeler dengesi probleminin bertaraf edilmesi açısından gerekli olduğunu düşünmekteyiz.

 7. Sonuç

Türkiye, 1970’li yıllardan itibaren yüksek enflasyonla birlikte yaşamak zorunda kalmış, Hükümetler, fiyat istikrarının sağlanması için çoğu başarısız olan birçok ekonomik programı uygulamaya koymuştur. Aralık 1999’da, Hükümet IMF’in desteğiyle birlikte, döviz kuruna dayanan bir anti-enflasyon programı başlatmış; Programın başlamasından yaklaşık 11 ay sonra Türk Ekonomisi Kasım 2000’de bir likidite krizi ve çok geçmeden Şubat 2001’de de bir döviz krizi ile karşı karşıya kalmıştır. Böylece, Döviz kurunu esas alan ve 2000–2002 yıllarını kapsayan, IMF destekli üç yıllık ekonomik istikrar programı da başarıya ulaşamamıştır. 2001 ekonomik kriziyle birlikte, Türkiye, barış döneminde yaşanan en derin ekonomik durgunluk içine girmiş, finansal sistem ciddi bir bankacılık krizinin içine doğru itilmiştir.

Netice itibariyle, 1980’li yıllardan itibaren Türkiye’de uygulanan ekonomik istikrar programlarının, sadece IMF desteğiyle başarıya ulaşma şansını elde edemedikleri anlaşılmıştır. İyi hazırlanmış bir istikrar programının, aynı zamanda yapısal reformlar, mali disiplin, tutarlı para ve döviz kuru politikaları ve halkın uygulanan programa olan güveninin sürekli kılınmasıyla hedefine ulaşabilmesi mümkündür. Bu kapsamda, 2002 yılından itibaren, cari açık dışında, ekonomide sağlanan olumlu gelişmeler ancak, halkın istikrar ve güven duygusunun korunmasıyla daha da ileriye gidebilecektir.

Yararlanılan Kaynaklar

Alper,C. Emre. “The Turkish Liquidity Crisis of 2000: What Went Wrong?” Russian and East European Finance and Trade, forthcoming. http://www.econ.boun.edu.tr/papers/pdf/wp-01-11.pdf, 2001.

Boratav, Korkut, “Notes on Turkey and Europe: Contradictions of opening up.” http://www.bilkent.edu.tr/~yeldanbs/Yazilar_Uye/Boratav_apr02, April 2002.

Boratav, Korkut, “2000/2001 Krizinde Sermaye Hareketleri”, http://www.bilkent.edu.tr/~yeldanbs/Yazilar_Uye/Boratav_agu01

Coulthurst, Barry.”Country Update: Turkey”,A Report by Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited(ANZ), April 2001.

Dinçer, Nazire Nergiz, “Döviz Kuru Dalgalanmalarının Asimetrik Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği” DPT Uzmanlık Tezi, DPT:2682, Şubat 2005.http://ekutup.dpt.gov.tr/para/dincernn/dovizkur.pdf

Erdikler, Şaban, “Türkiye’de Yabancı sermaye Hareketleri-Ortaklık ve İşbirliklerinin Rolü”,http://bsy.marmara.edu.tr/TR/sempozyum_bildirileri/SABAN%20ERDIKLER_75-82_.pdf

Kalkan, Mahmut. “Capital Flows and Exchange Rates in Turkey: The Effects of Liberalization and Stabilization.” http://eagle3.american.edu/~mk4078a/paperdraft.pdf, November 2002.

Shapiro, Alan C. “Multinational Financial Management,” John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Seventh Edition, 2003, pp.206,225-226.

Yeldan, Erinc. “On the IMF-Directed Disinflation Program in Turkey: A program for Stabilization and Austerity or a Recipe for Impoverishment and Financial Chaos?”  http://www.bilkent.edu.tr/~yeldane/TurkCris2001.PDF, September 2001.

Internet Kaynakları 

www.tcmb.gov.tr

www.foreigntrade.gov.tr

www.imf.org

www.die.gov.tr

www.hazine.gov.tr

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