TÜRKİYE IMF İLE DEVAM ETMELİ Mİ?

 

Türkiye’nin yıl sonunda 50 milyar doları bulması beklenen cari açığı, Uluslararası Para Fonu (IMF) ile Hükümet arasında yeni bir tartışmanın başlamasına sebep olmuştur.  IMF İcra Direktörleri Kurulu’nun, “büyük ve genişlemeye devam eden cari açıktan dolayı, kayda değer dış zafiyetlerin yerinde durmaya devam ettiğini” belirterek “yola bizimle devam edin” çağrısında bulunduğu açıklamaya, Hükümetten sert tepki geldi. Ekonomiden Sorumlu Devlet Bakanı Mehmet Şimşek, “Cari açığın esasen IMF Programının yan ürünü olarak ortaya çıktığını” belirtmiş ve “2001’deki krizde IMF programı yok muydu?” sorusunu yönelterek, Türkiye’nin IMF ile yaptığı stand-by anlaşmalarının yararlılığı konusunda yeni bir tartışmayı gündeme getirmiş bulunmaktadır.

Bilindiği üzere, Türkiye-IMF arasında imzalanan stand-by programları Mayıs 2008 tarihi itibariyle sona ermiş, program sonrası değerlendirme çalışmalarını geçen hafta tamamlayan İcra Direktörleri Kurulu, 1999-2008 arasında imzalanan Anlaşmaların sonuçlarını değerlendiren bir açıklamada bulunmuştur. Türkiye’nin ekonomik gündemine bomba gibi düşen ve küresel finans piyasalarındaki kırılganlığı işaret ederek Türkiye ile yeni bir anlaşma öneren bu açıklama, Hükümet tarafından tepkiyle karşılanmıştır.

Türkiye’nin yeni bir vizyon ve yeni bir programla yoluna devam etmesi gerektiğini ifade eden Devlet Bakanı Şimşek, aslında, Türkiye’nin IMF ile son 40 yılda imzaladığı 18 Anlaşmanın Türk ekonomisine arzulanan seviyede katkıda bulunamadığını söylemeye çalışmaktadır. Gerçekten de, IMF destekli  ekonomik istikrar ve enflasyonu düşürme programlarının başarı düzeyi, özellikle 2001 krizinden sonra Türkiye gündeminde daima tartışma konusu olmuştur ve çoğunluğu başarısızlıkla sonuçlanan bu programların gerekliliği konusundaki kuşkular giderek artış göstermiştir. Nitekim, büyük umutlarla hazırlanan ve döviz kurunu esas alan IMF destekli 1999 ekonomik istikrar programı, 2001 yılı Şubat ayında derin bir finansal kriz ile sonuçlanmış, Türk ekonomisinin barış döneminde yaşanan en derin ekonomik durgunluk içerisine girmesine yol açmış ve nihayet 2001 yılında ekonomi %9.5 oranında daralmıştır.

Geldiğimiz noktada, IMF İcra Direktörleri Kurulu, Türkiye’nin IMF ile yola devam etmesi gerektiğini belirtirken, bir yandan da öz eleştiri yapmaktan geri kalmamaktadır. Yapılan açıklamada, “Direktörler, Fon’un siyasi tavsiyelerinin genel olarak yerinde olduğunu düşünüyor. Ancak bazı Direktörler özellikle ilk dönemde, IMF’nin temel alanına girmeyen konularda üzerinde durulan ‘yapısal koşulluluğun’ aşırıya kaçmış olabileceği görüşünde…” denilmek suretiyle, programların başarısızlığında esasen IMF’nin de payı olduğunu itiraf etmektedirler. Kuşkusuz, imzalanan her stand-by anlaşmasının önemli bir unsurunu teşkil eden “yapısal reformlar” anlamında, IMF’nin sık sık uzmanlık alanı dışına çıktığı yönündeki itiraf kabule şâyandır. Öyle ki, emekli maaş artışlarından, bakanlıkların örgütlenme yapısına kadar uzanan bir yelpazede vuku bulan müdahaleler, zaman zaman geniş halk kitleleri tarafından da tepkiyle karşılanmıştır.

Öte yandan, Devlet Bakanı Mehmet Şimşek’in, IMF’nin 2001 ekonomik krizindeki sorumluluğunu gündeme getirmek suretiyle, yaşanan bu acı tecrübenin, Türkiye’nin yola tek başına devam edip etmeyeceği konusundaki kararını oluşturma aşamasında önemli bir referans olarak değerlendirmeye alınacağını işaret etmektedir. Her ne kadar, söz konusu kriz siyasi bir sebepten patlak vermiş ise de, aslında gerçek sebebin, Hükümetten gereken desteği görememiş olan 1999 istikrar programının temelini oluşturan döviz kuru politikasının güvenilirliği ve sürekliliği hakkında süregelen şüphelerin bir türlü giderilememiş olmasıdır.

Bu noktada, Türkiye-IMF ilişkilerinin tarihi gelişimine kısaca göz atmamızda yarar bulunduğu kanaatindeyiz:

Enflasyon 1970 yılından bu yana Ülkemizin yaşadığı en önemli ekonomik problem olmuş, bu nedenle Türkiye, IMF ile birlikte birçok anti-enflasyonist programa imza atmıştır. Bu dönemde, Türkiye mali piyasalarını ve sermaye hareketlerini serbestleştirmiş, bu programların başarıya ulaşabilmesini sağlamak amacıyla, ekonominin serbestleştirilmesi ve istikrara kavuşturabilmesi yönünde, son 40 yılda IMF ile çoğu başarısızlıkla sonuçlanan farklı Anlaşmalar yapılmış olup, döviz kuru, özellikle nominal döviz kuru politikaları, bu ekonomik istikrar programlarında anahtar rol oynamıştır.

1980’lerde Türk Ekonomisi hem dahili ve hem de harici olarak tümüyle serbestleştirilerek, iç piyasaya dönük ithal ikamesi politikası terk edilmiş ve ihracata dayalı büyüme politikası benimsenmiştir. Aynı yıllarda, Hükümet bankalara döviz işlemleri yapma iznini vermiş;  bankaları ve onların kısa dönem likidite ihtiyaçlarını karşılamak üzere İnterbank Para Piyasası oluşturulmuş; Sermaye Piyasası Kurulu teşkil edilmiş; İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası yeniden açılmış; sonuç olarak Türk ekonomisinin finansal derinliği artırılmıştır.

1990’lı yıllarda, Gayri Safi Milli Hâsılanın (GSMH), değişken bir yapı gösteren yabancı sermaye girişinin etkilerine, 1980’li yıllara kıyasla daha fazla bağlı bir hale geldiği görülmektedir. 1994 yılında yaşanan finansal krizle birlikte, enflasyon oranı 3 rakamlı bir sayıya ulaşmış ve nominal kur bir günde %39 değer kaybetmiştir. Ülkeden büyük miktarlarda sermaye çıkışına yol açan bu krizin hemen ardından Türkiye- IMF arasında yeni bir ekonomik istikrar programı imzalanmıştır. Söz konusu Stand-by anlaşmasının desteği ile önemli ölçüde yabancı sermaye girişi başlamış ve Türk ekonomisi 1995–1997 döneminde yıllık %7’den daha yüksek bir kalkınma hızını gerçekleştirebilmiştir. Bu dönemde, Merkez Bankası reel döviz kuru politikasını etkili bir şekilde takip etmiş ve 1994’teki yüksek devalüasyonun etkisiyle ihracat rakamlarında hızlı bir iyileşme sağlanmıştır. Bununla birlikte, hızlı ekonomik büyümeye rağmen, dış ticaret dengesi istikrarlı bir seviyede tutulabilmiş ancak, Asya Krizi nedeniyle, büyüme hızı 1998’de %3,1’e gerilemiştir.

1997 yılında yaşanan Doğu Asya Krizi ve 1998 yılında yaşanan Rusya Krizinin olumsuz etkileriyle mücadele etmek zorunda kalan Türkiye, 1999’da meydana gelen ve ekonomik ve sosyal hayatı sarsan depremlerle daha da güç koşullar içerisine sürüklenmiştir. Yüksek enflasyon ve reel faiz oranları, artan kamu açıkları nedeniyle bozulan ekonomik istikrarı yeniden sağlayabilmek amacıyla, Kasım 1999’da, Hükümet yeni bir enflasyonla mücadele programını başlatmış ve IMF ile yeni bir stand-by anlaşması imzalanmıştır.

IMF’nin büyük umutlar bağlanan 1999 ekonomik istikrar programı, 2001 yılı Şubat ayında derin bir ekonomik krizle âdeta duvara çarpmış, önceden ilan edilen nominal döviz kuru  politikası terk edilerek, döviz kurunun serbestçe dalgalanmasına izin verilmiştir. Krizin etkisiyle birlikte, enflasyon TEFE’de, 2000 yılında %32.7’den 2001 yılı sonunda %88.6’ya kadar yükselmiştir. Kriz sonrasında ekonomik programda revizyona gidilmiş, krizin ardından kurun önemli ölçüde değer kaybetmesi, dış ticarette rekabet gücünün artmasını sağlamış ve ekonomi 2002 yılından itibaren toparlanma eğilimine girmiştir.

IMF-Türkiye arasında, 2002–2004 yıllarını kapsayan yeni bir stand-by anlaşması imzalanarak hedefler revize edilmiş, uygulanan yeni ekonomik tedbirlerle, göstergeler hızla iyileşmeye başlamıştır.

2001 krizinin ardından ekonomik göstergelerde meydana gelen iyileşmeler ve sağlanan ekonomik istikrar ortamının daha ziyade, hükümetin yeni ekonomik tedbirlerin uygulanması konusundaki kararlılığı, uygun uluslararası ekonomik konjonktür ve kriz sonrası ekonominin izlediği doğal ve olumlu seyirden kaynaklandığını söylememiz mümkündür. Nitekim, gelişmiş ekonomilerde faiz oranlarının 2000 yılından itibaren hızlı bir düşüş eğilimi göstermesi üzerine, gelişmekte olan ülkelere doğrudan yabancı sermaye akışında ciddi bir artış olmuştur. Bu da, tabii olarak krizden çıkmış bir ekonominin finansman sorununun çözümüne önemli ölçüde katkı sağlamıştır.

Öte yandan, cari açığın, 2002 yılından itibaren sürekli olarak büyüyen Türk Ekonomisinin en büyük problemi olarak karşımıza çıktığını görmekteyiz. Zira, Cari İşlemler Hesabının yıl sonuna kadar 50 milyar dolar açık vermesi beklenmektedir. Aşırı değerlenmiş YTL ile yüksek reel faiz oranlarının, son yıllarda artış eğilimi gösteren cari açık üzerinde baskı oluşturarak ileride bir ödemeler dengesi probleminin yaşanmasını muhtemel hale getirdiğini düşünmekteyiz.

Yaşanan bu gelişmelerin de katkısıyla cari açık ekseninde gelişen Türkiye-IMF ilişkilerinin geleceği hakkındaki tartışma, karşılıklı suçlamalarla hız kazanmış bulunmaktadır. Ne var ki,  Türk Ekonomisinin gittikçe kronikleşen bir problemi haline gelen cari açığın, uygulanan IMF programlarının bir yan ürünü olduğunu ileri sürerken, aynı zamanda sağlanan ekonomik büyüme, enflasyon ve kamu borçlarındaki düşüş gibi olumlu gelişmelerin de bu programlar dönemine rast geldiği unutulmaktadır.

Netice itibariyle, özellikle 1980’li yıllardan itibaren Türkiye’de uygulanan IMF destekli ekonomik istikrar programlarının başarı seviyeleri dikkate alındığında, Türkiye-IMF ilişkilerinin tarihi süreçteki yansımalarının derinlemesine tahlil edilmesi ve buna göre, geleceğe dönük yeni bir yol haritası çizilmesi zamanının geldiği kanaatindeyiz. Zira Türkiye’nin kendine has ekonomik problemlerine, toplumsal ihtiyaçları da gözetecek şekilde ve kendi gerçekleri temelinde çözüm yolları üretilmesi ve bu doğrultuda programlar hazırlanması halinde, halkın desteğini almak ve başarı şansını artırmak daha da kolay olabilecektir.

Dolayısıyla, Türkiye’nin kendine özgü, yeni bir program ve vizyonla yola devam etmesi gerektiği düşüncesine olumlu bakılmalıdır. Kaldı ki, dış finansman konusunda sorun yaşamadığı sürece bir ekonominin, IMF desteğine ihtiyaç duymaksızın ve tamamen milli kaygılarla hazırlanmış, sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyüme ve etkili bir enflasyonla mücadele programıyla yola devam etmesi mümkün bulunmaktadır. Bu yüzdendir  ki Hükümet şu günlerde, Türkiye’nin IMF destekli yeni bir ekonomik programa ihtiyacının olup olmadığı hususunu tartışma konusu yapmakta ve IMF’nin bu konudaki çağrılarına ihtiyatla yaklaşmaktadır.

Bununla birlikte, dünya piyasalarını tehdit eden küresel krizin etkileri sona erinceye kadar, daha esnek bir çerçevede hazırlanmış bir ihtiyati stand-by anlaşmasının seçenekler arasında yer alması belki Hükümetin hareket kâbiliyetini artırabilecektir. Ancak uzun vadede hazırlanacak bir ekonomik istikrar programının başarısı, yapısal reformlar, mali disiplin, tutarlı para ve döviz kuru politikalarını gerekli kıldığı gibi, aynı zamanda, uygulanan programa yönelik güçlü ve sürekli bir güven duygusunu da ihtiyaç haline getirmektedir.

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TÜRKİYE IMF İLE DEVAM ETMELİ Mİ?” hakkında 8.439 yorum

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