KÜRESEL MALİ KRİZ VE SİYASİ YANSIMALARI

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Nejat ÇOĞAL

2007 yılında ABD’de mortgage sisteminin çökmesiyle başlayan finansal kriz giderek derinleşmiş ve geldiğimiz noktada küresel bir boyut kazanmış bulunmaktadır. 1929 depresyonundan sonraki en büyük mali kriz olarak görülen ve ABD’nin dünya çapındaki yatırım bankalarının bir bir çökmesine yol açan bu global kriz, kapitalist sistemin iflası olarak da değerlendirilmektedir. Öyle ki, kriz nedeniyle, son bir ay içerisinde dünya menkul kıymetler borsalarındaki değer kaybı 4.1 trilyon dolara ulaşmış durumdadır.

Finans piyasasındaki krizin reel sektöre sirayet etmesi kaçınılmaz görünmektedir. Nitekim, Uluslararası Para Fonu (IMF)’nun hazırladığı ve geçmiş finansal krizlerin de değerlendirildiği “2008 Dünya Ekonomik Görünümü” raporunun açıklanan bazı bölümlerinde, Avrupa’daki yükselen piyasaların cari açıklarının ‘risk’ oluşturduğu uyarısı yapılarak, özellikle ABD’nin ‘derin resesyona’ girebileceği, belirtilmektedir.

2000’li yılların başından itibaren suni bir şekilde ve reel sektörü katlayarak âdeta şişirilen finans sektörü, risk analizi yapmadan ve fütursuzca önüne gelen herkese kredi dağıtmış, imkânlarının üzerinde borçlanan Amerikalılar ise, bu saadet zincirinin sonsuza dek süreceği umuduna kapılmışlardı. Ne yazık ki, sektördeki kötü organizasyon yapısı ve eksik denetim, bankaların hızlı büyüme hırsıyla beraber vatandaşların ucuz para-bol kredi arzusunu tahrik etmiş ve nihayet patlayan balon, yüzyılın en büyük mali krizi olarak sahne almıştır. Wall Street’teki yatırım bankacılığı modelini sona erdiren ve ABD’yi derinden sarsan bu finansal krizin, siyasi yansımalarının da ağır olacağını düşünmekteyiz.

Nitekim,buz dağının sadece görünen kısmı bile ABD siyasi arenasında dengeleri değiştirmiş gibi görünmektedir. Öyle ki, ABD’nin en büyük yatırım bankalarından Lehman Brothers’ın iflası ile başlayan ve tüm finans piyasasını etkisi altına alarak, Wall Street’in çökmesiyle sonuçlanan mali kriz, Amerikalıları derin bir endişeye sürüklemiş, bu durum iktidardaki Cumhuriyetçilere olan güveni sarsarak, Başkan adaylarından Demokrat Barack Obama’nın, Cumhuriyetçi John MacCain’in yaklaşık 10 puan önüne geçmesine yol açmış bulunmaktadır. Şimdilerde ise, Cumhuriyetçilerin Kasım’da yapılacak Başkanlık seçimini kazanabilmek için ne gibi bir manevra yapacakları merakla beklenmektedir.

Bu meyanda, ABD’nin ciddi bir mali kriz içinde bulunduğunu itiraf etmek zorunda kalan ABD Başkanı George W. Bush, ilk adım olarak, Hazine Bakanı Henry M. Paulson tarafından hazırlanan 700 milyar dolarlık bir mali kurtarma planını Kongreye sevk etmiştir. Fakat, bu sırada, Muhafazakar Cumhuriyetçiler ve Demokratların muhalefeti nedeniyle paket ciddi anlamda revize edilerek orijinal versiyonundan epeyce uzaklaştırılmıştır. Yeniden şekillenen pakete göre, 700 milyar doların ilk 350 milyar doları serbest bırakılacak, eğer Kongre programın iyi sonuç getirmediğine inanırsa, 350 milyar dolarlık ikinci dilimi bloke edebilecekti.

Toplam 700 Milyar Dolarlık finansal kurtarma paketiyle, bankaları ve finans şirketlerini batık borçlarından kurtarmak ve ekonomiye sağlıklı kredi akışını yeniden sağlamak hedeflenmekteydi. Ne yazık ki, piyasaların açıldığı 29 Eylül Pazartesi günü, Temsilciler Meclisinde yapılan oylamada paket reddedilmiş, böylece Başkan Bush, büyük bir hayal kırıklığı içinde ilk siyasi darbeyi de yemiştir. Cumhuriyetçi Başkan Bush’un önerdiği pakete, yine Cumhuriyetçi Partiye  mensup 134 milletvekili tarafından ret oyu verilmesi ise manidardır.

Finans tarihine yeni bir “kara pazartesi” olarak geçen bu günde, başta Wall Street olmak üzere tüm dünya borsalarında büyük düşüşler yaşanmış, mali kriz daha da derinleşmiştir. Bu kapsamda, Dow Jones sanayi endeksi, 777.68 puan birden düşerek tarihinin en büyük değer kaybını kayda geçirmiş bulunmaktadır.  İMKB ise, bayram tatili olması nedeniyle bu küresel şoktan, şimdilik yara almadan kurtulmuş gibi görünmektedir.

Paulson Paketinin Temsilciler Meclisinde reddedilmesi üzerine, paket üzerinde özellikle orta gelir grubunda yer alan vergi mükelleflerini rahatlatacak düzeltmeler yapıldı. Paket, siyasi bir manevra ile önce Senato’da oylandı ve kabul edildi. Ardından Temsilciler meclisinde de oylanarak kabul edilen yeni pakette, ilk paketteki unsurlara ilave olarak, vatandaşlar ve şirketlere yönelik olarak 150 milyar dolarlık vergi indirimi öngörülmekte ve ayrıca devlet tarafından garanti edilen mevduat tutarı 100 bin dolardan 250 bin dolara çıkartılmaktadır. 850 Milyar Dolarlık genişletilmiş mali kurtarma paketinin, ABD Senatosu ve Temsilciler Meclisinde kabul edilmesiyle birlikte finans piyasalarında kısmi bir rahatlama olması beklenmektedir.

Pazarın düzgün işlemediği ve ABD ekonomisinin bir resesyona doğru sürüklendiğini söyleyerek, “mali kıyamet” uyarısında bulunan Bush’un bu kurtarma paketi,  yaklaşan başkanlık seçimleri nedeniyle, kendi partisine mensup kongre üyeleri tarafından bile kuşkuyla karşılanmıştır. Serbest piyasa ekonomisinin beşiğinde, belki de tarihin en büyük devletleştirme operasyonu olarak kayıtlara geçecek olan bu paketin, Washington’un siyasi beklentilerine ne gibi bir cevap vereceğini görmek için biraz beklememiz gerekecektir.

Şimdilik ABD ekonomisiyle sınırlı gibi görünen mali krizin zamanla, bir ahtapot gibi tüm dünyayı saracağı ve bölgesel finans piyasalarında ciddi hasarlara yol açacağını söylememiz mümkündür. Wall Street’de batan yatırım bankalarının küresel boyutu ve dünya piyasalarıyla olan bağlantıları dikkate alındığında tedirginlik daha da artmaktadır.  Mesela, yüksek cari açığı bulunan Türkiye’nin, ABD’de ortaya çıkan mali krizin muhtemel etkilerinden korunmak için tedbir alması gereği ortadadır. Zira, krizin etkileri daha şimdiden Avrupa’da hissedilmeye başlanmıştır.

Bu meyanda, İngiltere’de, 800 bin hissedarı bulunan ve 40 milyar sterlin değerinde bir fonu idare eden finans devlerinden Bradford&Bingley’in kamulaştırılmasına karar verilmiştir. Ayrıca, 995 milyar dolarlık varlığa sahip Avrupa’nın en büyük bankalarından birisi olan Fortis’in Belçika, Hollanda ve Lüksemburg üçlüsü tarafından kısmen devletleştirilmesi kararı açıklanmış bulunmaktadır. Diğer taraftan, yaklaşan krizin olumsuz etkilerini hissetmeye başlayan Fransa Cumhurbaşkanı Nicolas Sarkozy, “önümüzdeki iki üç ay içinde, krizin etkisini Fransa’da da göstereceğini, herkesin buna hazırlıklı olması gerektiğini,  devletin krize müdahale edeceğini ve artık bırakınız yapsınlar döneminin sona erdiğini” belirtmesi, durumun vahametini ortaya koymaktadır kanaatindeyiz.

Bu noktada, küresel finansal krize yol açan başlıca sebepleri şu şekilde sıralamamız mümkün bulunmaktadır:

– Özellikle 2000’li yıllarda, mali sektördeki büyüme reel sektördeki büyümeyi katladı ve bu durum finans piyasasında ciddi bir şişkinlik problemi yarattı ve aşırı borçlanan yatırım bankaları yüksek risk altına girdi.

– Büyük ölçüde kuralsız olarak işleyen finansal piyasalar, iyi organize olamadı ve yeterince denetlenemedi.

– 10 trilyon dolarlık bir hacmi ihtiva eden Mortgage piyasasında, kredilerin geri dönüşünde sıkıntılar baş göstermeye başladı.

-Konut fiyatlarında balon artışlar yaşandı.

Esasen, BM Genel Kurulunda yaptığı konuşmada, “hiçbir kuralı olmayan, devletin müdahalesinden uzak finansal kapitalizm fikrinin ‘çılgın’ bir fikir olduğunu, bankaların piyasalar üzerinde spekülasyon yapıp kendi asli görevlerini bir kenara bıraktıklarını,  daha ahlaklı bir kapitalist sistem kurulması gerektiğini” söyleyen Fransa Cumhurbaşkanı Nicolas Sarkozy’nin, hem krizin sebeplerini ve hem de çıkış yolunu en iyi şekilde özetlediğini düşünmekteyiz.

Finans piyasalarında ödeme sisteminin aksaması nedeniyle FED ile Avrupa, İngiltere ve İsviçre Merkez Bankaları sektöre devamlı olarak para pompalayarak, piyasalarda istikrarı sağlamaya çalışmaktadırlar. Ne var ki, enflasyonist bir etkiye sahip böylesi bir yöntemin tek başına krizi çözmeye yetmeyeceği ve aslında yapılması gereken şeyin, mali piyasaların yeniden yapılandırılması suretiyle etkin bir denetim mekanizmasının tesis edilmesi suretiyle sektörün disiplin altına alınması olacağının, para otoriteleri tarafından yeterince anlaşılamadığını müşahede etmekteyiz.

Küresel mali krizin artçı dalgalarından Türkiye’nin etkilenmeyeceği elbette söylenemez. Her ne kadar 2001 krizinden farklı  bir durum söz konusu olsa da, ABD eksenli küresel finansal kriz daha de derinleşirse, uzun vadede Türkiye’de kredi piyasalarının daralmasına yol açabilecek ve dışarıdan borçlanan bankalar ve özel şirketler bundan olumsuz etkilenebileceklerdir. Ayrıca, ABD’den sonra Avrupa’da da baş gösterecek olan ekonomik daralmanın, ihracatının %50’sinden fazlasını AB’ye yapan Türkiye ekonomisinde de kısmi bir yavaşlamaya yol açması muhtemel görünmektedir.

Öte yandan, dünyanın en büyük ekonomisinde baş gösteren ekonomik krizin, hem ABD ve hem de dünya siyasi arenasında ciddi yansımalarının olacağını düşünmekteyiz. Öncelikle, krizin, ABD başkanlık yarışında dengeleri Demokratlar lehine değiştirdiğini görmekteyiz. Nitekim, Cumhuriyetçilerin bizatihi kendileri mali kurtarma paketine ret oyu vermişlerdir. Halk arasında, kurtarma paketine karşı “bankaları değil, insanları kurtarın” benzeri sloganlar giderek daha çok kabul görmekte ve bunun muhtemel siyasi yansımaları, Cumhuriyetçi Başkan Adayı  John MacCain’i ziyadesiyle rahatsız etmektedir. Zira, aşırı kâr hırsına bürünmüş, şımarık bankacıların keyfi tavırları nedeniyle oluşan zararın milyonlarca vergi mükellefinin sırtına yüklenmeye çalışılması, sokaktaki vatandaşı rahatsız etmiş ve Amerika’da muhtemel bir “sosyal patlamanın” ilk tohumlarını da atmış bulunmaktadır.

Amerika’nın, dünyanın jandarmalığına soyunması hasebiyle giriştiği uluslararası askeri operasyonlar, zaten vatandaşlarının üzerinde ağır bir mali yük getirmekteydi. Nitekim, Afganistan ve Irak savaşlarının getirdiği ağır maliyet ABD’nin bütçe açığını hızla genişletmeye devam etmektedir. Son günlerde patlak veren küresel mali kriz ise, vergi mükelleflerinin üzerine ek mali yükler getirmektedir. Bu durum, kuşkusuz, Washington’un uluslararası yeni askeri operasyonlar yapma konusundaki cesaretini kıracaktır. Fakat buna rağmen, Washington’daki neo-con’ların, maliyet hesaplarını bir tarafa bırakarak, ABD’nin dünyanın hâlâ tek hegemonik gücü olduğunu ispat edebilmek için bile denizaşırı askeri bir operasyona, mesela İran’a bir hava saldırısına girişmesi mümkün görünmektedir. ABD’nin, son günlerde, İsrail’in hava saldırı ve savunma sistemlerini gelişmiş teknoloji ile donatması, böylesi bir operasyonun İsrail’e de havale edilebileceğini işaret etmektedir.

ABD’yi derinden etkileyen ekonomik kriz belki de en çok Rusya’nın işine yarayacaktır. Nitekim, yakın bir geçmişte Gürcistan’ı işgal ederek ABD’ye meydan okuyan ve Amerikan egemenliğine dayanan tek kutuplu dünya düzeninin sona erdiğini ilan eden Moskova, şimdi tek rakibinin ciddi bir mali kriz nedeniyle içe kapanarak, Atlantik ötesinde ve özellikle de Avrasya coğrafyasındaki nüfuz mücadelesine yeterince ağırlığını koyamayacağını hesap etmektedir.

Nitekim, ABD Dışişleri Bakanı Condoleezza Rice’ın, Kazakistan’ın başkenti Astana’ya uçarken, ABD’nin, bu eski Sovyet ülkesi ile yakın ilişki kurma gayretlerinin, Rusya’nın Orta Asya bölgesindeki nüfuzunu kırma anlamına geldiği şeklindeki iddiayı reddettiğini, özellikle ifade etme ihtiyacını duyması manidardır. Zira, Kafkasya’da sebep olduğu huzursuzluk nedeniyle, Rusya’ya ağır tehditler yönelten Washington’un, şimdilerde Moskova’yı ürkütmekten çekindiğini görmekteyiz. Öte yandan,Kazakistan Dışişleri Bakanı Marat Tajin’in, ortak basın toplantısı sırasında, Rusya ile ilişkilerinin mükemmel seviyede olduğunu ve siyasi olarak bunun doğru olduğunu söyleme gereğini duyması, bölge ülkelerinin ABD’ye bakış açısını değiştirmeye başladığı yönündeki kanaatimizi güçlendirmektedir. Öyle ki, bazı Amerikalı stratejistlerin, ABD’nin Avrasya ve Hazar bölgesini kaybettiği şeklinde yorum yapmaya başladıklarını müşahede etmekteyiz.

ABD’nin yaklaşımlarında görülen yumuşamanın da etkisiyle oluşabilecek muhtemel bir otorite boşluğunu fırsat bilen Rusya’nın, bölgede etkinliğini artırmak için yeni serüvenlere yelken açması da kaçınılmaz görünmektedir. Mesela, Moskova’nın, yakın zamanda Ukrayna’ya müdahalesi pekâlâ gündeme gelebilir. ABD’nin ise, küresel hakimiyetine Rusya’yı ortak edip etmeyeceğini yakın zamanda görebilmemiz mümkün olacaktır.

Öte yandan, Avrupa’yı ciddi biçimde etkilemeye başlayan global finansal kriz, AB’nin devleri Almanya ile Fransa arasında gerginliğe yol açarak AB’yi âdeta ikiye bölmüş durumdadır. Hollanda tarafından önerilen ve AB Dönem Başkanı Fransa tarafından kabul gören 300 milyar Euro’luk ortak banka kurtarma fonu kurulması fikri, Almanya tarafından tepkiyle karşılanmıştır. Mali yapısı güçlü bulunan Almanya, her ülkenin krize karşı tek başına mücadele etmesi gerektiğini savunmaktadır. AB Dönem Başkanı Fransa Cumhurbaşkanı Nicolas Sarkozy’nin ev sahipliğini yaptığı ve İngiltere, Almanya ve İtalya başbakanları ile Avrupa Komisyonu Başkanı ve Avrupa Merkez Bankası Başkanı’nın katıldığı, 4 Ekim tarihli  kriz zirvesinden de ortak bir karar çıkmaması, AB ülkelerinin küresel mali krizle mücadele konusunda yekvücut hareket etme kabiliyetinin ne kadar zayıf olduğunu işaret etmektedir.

Netice itibariyle, ABD’de ortaya çıkan küresel mali kriz belki kapitalizmin sonunu getiremedi ancak, bu ülkenin uluslararası itibarını ciddi anlamda zedeledi. Zira, petrol fiyatını kısa bir sürede 150 doların üzerine çıkarabilen, ABD merkezli küresel kapitalistler, Amerikan İmparatorluğu’nun arkasındaki gerçek güç olan global finansal sektörün çökmesine sebep olmuşlardır. Mali piyasalarının uluslararası güvenilirliği ciddi biçimde sarsılan ABD’nin, denizaşırı yeni askeri operasyon yapma kabiliyeti de zayıflamış bulunmaktadır. Krizi aşmak için 850 milyar dolarlık-ki bu rakamın 1.8 trilyon dolara çıkması beklenmektedir- bir ek yükü kendi vatandaşlarının sırtına yükleyen ABD Hükümetinin, yüksek maliyetli, Atlantik ötesi yeni askeri operasyonlar için halkın karşısına çıkması zor olacaktır. ABD Başkanı Bush, her ne kadar küresel krizden çıkış paketine Kongre’den şartlı izin almış olsa da, bu krizin, Başkanlık yarışında Partisine verebileceği zararları bertaraf edebilmesi kolay olmayacaktır. Amerikan Hükümetinin, kendi kazdığı kuyuya düşen bankaları ve yatırım şirketlerini, halkın sırtına yükleyeceği ek mali yüklerle kurtarmak yerine, finans piyasalarının önemli ölçüde kaybettiği güveni yeniden tesis etmeye çalışması, daha uygun olacaktır.

ABD’nin hem içerde ve hem de dışarıda elini zayıflatan küresel mali kriz, şüphesiz  yüksek cari açığı bulunan Türkiye’yi de etkileyecektir. Küresel likidite krizinin Türkiye ekonomisinde bir daralmaya yol açma ihtimali kuvvetlidir. Mali kurtarma paketinin ABD Temsilciler Meclisinde reddedilmesi üzerine, başta Wall Street olmak üzere tüm dünya borsaları büyük bir değer kaybı yaşarken, bayram tatili nedeniyle kapalı olan IMKB bu şoku yara almadan atlatmıştır. Ancak, krizden kurtulmak için bayram tatillerinden medet ummak pek akıllıca bir yöntem olmayacaktır kanaatindeyiz. Bu nedenle, krizin olumsuz etkilerini en aza indirmek için, bir yandan özel sektörün verimlilik ve tasarruf artışına yönelerek dış finansman ihtiyacını azaltma yoluna gitmesi gerekirken, diğer taraftan da Hükümetin sıkı para ve maliye politikaları ile mali disiplini sürdürmesinin yararlı olacağını düşünmekteyiz.

İç siyasi ve ekonomik problemlerle boğuşan ABD’nin, özellikle Avrasya bölgesine olan ilgisinin azalması, Rusya-Çin-Hindistan ittifakının güçlenmesine yol açacak ve Rusya’nın bölgedeki ağırlığını giderek artırmasına imkân verebilecektir. Böylesi bir ortamda, bölgenin güçlü ve istikrarlı bir ülkesi olan Türkiye’nin alacağı tavır daha da bir önem arz etmektedir. Rusya’nın yükselişe geçtiği bir dönemde, ABD, Türkiye ile daha yapıcı ilişkiler geliştirme ve Türkiye’ye jeostratejik bir oyuncu gibi davranma ihtiyacını, bilhassa böylesi zayıf bir döneminde, her zamankinden daha çok hissedecektir. Sonuçta, küresel alanda etkinliğini artırmaya çalışan ve 21. yüzyılın lokomotif ülkesi olabilecek potansiyele sahip bulunan Türkiye’nin, jeopolitik konumunu iyi değerlendirerek ve global krizi fırsat bilerek, yeni kurulacak çok kutuplu dünya düzeninde saygın konumunu sağlamlaştırması mümkün görünmektedir.

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