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KAFKASYA’DA ADI KONMAMIŞ BİR SAVAŞ

 

Rusya ile Gürcistan arasındaki gerginliğin nihayet bir sıcak çatışmaya dönüşmesi pek sürpriz olarak karşılanmamıştır, çünkü daha önceki bir yazımızda da belirttiğimiz gibi bölgede her an bir sıcak çatışma çıkma ihtimali vardı ve savaş rüzgarları giderek şiddetini artırmaktaydı. Neticede, “Rus vatandaşlarını koruma ve bölgede barışı tesis etme” gerekçesiyle Güney Osetya’ya ve daha da ileriye giderek Gürcistan topraklarına şiddetli bir askeri operasyona girişen Rusya, Kafkasya’yı bir savaş alanına çevirmiş durumdadır. İşin daha da vahim olan tarafı, ABD ve AB’ye güvenerek Güney Osetya’ya askeri operasyon başlatan Tiflis’in,  umduğu desteği bulamaması ve Rusya’nın amacını aşan misillemesi karşısında siyasi egemenliğini kaybetme korkusuyla  tek taraflı savaş ilanının hemen ardından yine tek taraflı ateşkes ilan etmek zorunda kalmış olmasıdır. Ne var ki Rusya, savaş halini bile kabul etmeyerek, yakaladığı bu fırsatı sonuna kadar değerlendirmek niyetindedir.

Sovyetler Birliği’nin dağılmasının ardından, 1991 yılında Gürcistan’ın bağımsızlığını kazanmasıyla birlikte bölgede ayrılıkçı hareketler ivme kazanmıştır. Çoğunluğunu etnik Ruslar ve Gürcü olmayan başka toplulukların oluşturduğu Güney Osetya, aynı durumdaki diğer iki bölge olan Abhazya ve Acaristan’da olduğu gibi Gürcistan’a bağlanmamak için direndiler. Bunlardan Acaristan fazla direnç gösterememiş ve Tiflis’e boyun eğmek durumunda kalmıştır. Buna karşın, 1994 yılında fiilen bağımsızlığını ilan eden, ancak bugüne kadar hiçbir ülke tarafından tanınmamış bulunan Abhazya ve Güney Osetya’da gerginlik artarak devam etmiş, Rusya Federasyonu barış gücü askeri bulundurmak suretiyle, bu bölgede barışın korunması sorumluluğunu üzerine almıştır.

Şubat 2008 tarihinde ABD ve AB bayraklarının gölgesinde, Kosova’nın, Rusya’nın uydusu Sırbistan’dan bağımsızlığını ilan etmesi karşısında Moskova’nın tepkisi sert olmuştu. Tüm meydan okumalarına rağmen Batı tarafından ciddiye alınmayan Rusya, uluslararası itibarını ciddi biçimde sarsan bu gelişmeyi bir kenara not etmiş ve intikamını almak için fırsat kollamaya başlamıştı. Bu kapsamda, 2-4 Nisan’da Bükreş’te yapılan NATO tarihinin en büyük zirvesinde ilk stratejik atağını yapmış, ABD’nin tüm çabalarına rağmen Ukrayna ve Gürcistan’ın resmi adaylık statüsü kazanmalarına engel olmuştu. Artık Rusya, ABD ve NATO’ya bir tepki olarak, ayrılıkçı Güney Osetya ve Abhazya kartını açıkça oynamakta bir sakınca görmeyecektir. Nitekim öyle de oldu. Kremlin, öncelikle, resmen tanımamakla birlikte Abhazya ile doğrudan siyasi ve ekonomik ilişki kuracağını ilan etti. Müteakiben, bölgedeki ayrılıkçı güçler, Rusya’nın da desteğiyle Gürcistan’a karşı kışkırtıcı eylemlerini yoğunlaştırmaya başladılar. Putin’in, giderayak Abhazya ve Güney Osetya’da  bulundurduğu barış gücü kuvvetlerine dahil asker sayısını 5 Mayıs itibariyle takviye etmesi, Tiflis’in huzursuzluğunu had safhaya çıkaran bir gelişme olarak bölgede tansiyonu artırdı..

Tüm bu tahrik edici hareketlerin üstüne bir de son günlerde Osetyalı askeri kuvvetlerin Gürcü topraklarını top ateşine tutması, Tiflis için bardağı taşıran son damla oldu ve Gürcistan Devlet Başkanı Saakaşvili, Gürcü askerlerine saldırı emrini vermek durumunda kaldı. Gürcü silahlı kuvvetlerinin, tam da Pekin Olimpiyatlarının başladığı 8 Ağustos günü Güney Osetya bölgesinin içlerine doğru yaptığı askeri operasyonlar sonucunda, Rus barış gücü askerlerinin de dahil olduğu çok sayıda Osetyalı sivilin ölmesi üzerine, Rusya için askeri operasyon fırsatı da doğmuş oldu. Ne var ki Rusya, gerçekleştirdiği askeri saldırının ölçüsünü kaçırdı ve barış gücü hattını da aşarak Gürcü topraklarının içlerine kadar operasyonu genişletti. Artık, kozlar Rusya’nın eline geçmiş durumdadır ve nerede duracağına da kendisi karar verecektir. Gelinen noktada, Saakasvili’nin yaşadığı hayal kırıklığı dünya kamuoyunun gözünden kaçmamaktadır. Zira, Rusya’nın kendi topraklarını bombalaması karşısında çok güvendiği ABD ve AB’den umduğu desteği bulamamış ve ülkesini Rusya ile çaresiz bir savaşın içine doğru sürüklemiştir. Ülkesinin Toprak bütünlüğünü ve siyasi egemenliğini tamamen kaybetme riski ile karşı karşıya kalan Gürcü Cumhurbaşkanı, şimdilerde adı bile konmamış bu savaşa ateşkes önermekte ve emperyalist Rusya’nın elinden kurtulabilmek için Batı dünyasından medet ummaktadır.

NATO ve AB’ye üye olmak suretiyle hem bölgesel güvenliğini garanti altına alma ve hem de ekonomisini kalkındırma hayalleri kuran Gürcistan, bir yandan Batı ile yakın ilişkiler geliştirirken, bir yandan da, Güney Kafkasya’nın kontrolünü elinden bırakmak istemeyen Rusya’nın düşmanlığını kazanmaktadır. 2003 yılında gerçekleşen “pembe devrimle” iktidara gelen Mihail Saakaşvili, Batı desteğiyle ülkesinin toprak bütünlüğünü sağlamayı hedeflemektedir. Ne var ki, Tiflis’in NATO ile yakın temasını kendisine meydan okuma olarak değerlendiren Rusya, buna, ayrılıkçı Abhazya ve Güney Osetya Özerk Cumhuriyetlerini desteklemek ve nihayet eline geçen ilk fırsatı değerlendirerek askeri bir operasyon yaparak cevap vermiştir.

Kafkasya’da yaşanan bu gelişmeler esasen bölgeyi içinden çıkılması zor bir çelişkiler yumağı haline getirmiş durumdadır. Öyle ki, Kosova’nın bağımsızlığı, özellikle kendi ülkesindeki Çeçenistan hareketi olmak üzere, ayrılıkçı eylemleri tahrik edeceği endişesiyle, Rusya tarafından şiddetle reddedilmiştir. Fakat, Rusya, ayrılıkçı Güney Osetya ve Abhazya hareketlerini destekleyerek çifte standardını da ortaya koymaktan geri kalmamaktadır. Bir zamanlar Batıyı çifte Standard uygulamakla suçlayan Rusya bu defa bizatihi kendisinin aynı duruma düşmesinde bir sakınca görmemiş ve ayrılıkçı Çeçenistan hareketini desteklemekle suçladığı Gürcistan’a karşı kısasa kısas taktiğini uygulama çabası  içine girmiştir. Ayrıca Rusya’nın, ABD ile birlikte Türkiye’yi de Gürcistan’a askeri destek vermekle suçlaması, Türkiye-Rusya ve Türkiye-Gürcistan ilişkilerinin geleceği açısından da karmaşık bir vaziyet arz etmektedir.

Ayrıca Rusya, her ne kadar Güney Osetya’daki Rus vatandaşlarının korunması, Gürcistan’ın barışa zorlanması gibi gerekçelerle Gürcistan’a saldırdığını iddia etse de, perde arkasında Rusya’nın Güney Kafkasya bölgesine yönelik jeostratejik hedeflerinin yattığını söylememiz mümkündür. Zira, Enerji üretim ve dağıtım potansiyelini dış politikada bir silah olarak kullanmaya çalışan Rusya, dünyanın en zengin petrol ve doğalgaz rezervlerine sahip Kafkasya ve Orta Asya üzerinde hâkimiyet kurma çabası içerisindedir.  Ayrıca, Orta Asya ile Avrupa arasında bir köprü niteliğini haiz Kafkasya’nın ve dolayısıyla bölgede stratejik bir konuma sahip Gürcistan’ın kontrol altında tutulması, Rusya Federasyonu için vazgeçilmez öncelikler arasındadır.

Görev süresi boyunca sürekli Batıya meydan okuyan, “şahin” olarak nitelendirebileceğimiz Rusya Devlet Başkanı Vladimir Putin, 7 Mayıs günü, Başkanlık görevini Dmitriy Medvedev’e devretmişti. Rusya’nın başına, “daha fazla kişisel özgürlük ve ekonomik serbesti” üzerine yoğunlaşacağını açıklayan ılımlı ve batı yanlısı bir liderin geçmiş olması, bölgede tansiyonun düşmesine katkı sağlayacak bir gelişme olarak değerlendirilmişti. Ancak, göreve gelir gelmez Putin’i Başbakanlığa atayan Medvedev’in Kafkasya’da başlattığı savaş ortamı, tüm beklentileri altüst etmiş durumdadır.

Öte yandan, Rusya’nın arka bahçesi olan Güney Kafkasya bölgesine sızabilmek gayesiyle Ukrayna ile birlikte Gürcistan’ı NATO’ya üye yapmak için büyük çaba sarf eden ve bu uğurda Gürcistan ile yakın ilişki kurmak suretiyle Saakasvili’yi Rusya’ya karşı cesaretlendiren ABD’nin, Rusya’nın bu ciddi askeri operasyonu karşısında fiilen tepkisiz kalması düşündürücüdür. Acaba, Gürcistan NATO üyesi yapılsaydı Rusya böyle bir operasyon yapabilir miydi? Görünen o ki Gürcü Cumhurbaşkanı zamanlamayı yanlış yapmıştır. NATO üyesi olmadan Batının tam desteğini arkasına almayı hesaplamış fakat bu hesap tutmamıştır. Dahası, karşı cephe genişlemiş, Güney Osetya’daki operasyonlardan cesaret alan ayrılıkçı Abhazya Bölgesi silahlı kuvvetleri de Gürcü topraklarına saldırıya geçmişlerdir. Böylece Tiflis, kendi başlattığı bir operasyonda geri adım atmak zorunda bırakılmış ve dahası topraklarının önemli bir kısmını kaybetme riskiyle karşı karşıya kalmıştır.

Ancak, bu savaştan Rusya’nın da galip çıkacağını söylemek için çok erkendir. Zira, Batı ile ilişkilerini geliştirme eğiliminde olan Medvedev, savaşı Güney Osetya’nın da ötesine, Gürcü topraklarına taşıyarak, Kafkasları bir ateşin içine sürüklemesi halinde, Batı ile ilişkilerinin ciddi biçimde bozulması kaçınılmazdır. Bu ise, küresel sisteme entegre olmaya çalışan Rusya için bir stratejik gerileme olacaktır. Diğer taraftan, Güney Osetya’dan çekilmesi halinde, özellikle buradaki etnik Ruslar açısından eskisinden de zor bir dönem başlayabilecektir. Dolayısıyla, esasen Rusya’nın da bir açıdan Gürcistan kadar riskli bir pozisyona girdiğini söylememiz mümkündür.

Kafkasya’daki gelişmeler şüphesiz, Türkiye’yi de yakından ilgilendirmektedir. Türkiye’de yaklaşık bir milyon gürcü kökenli vatandaşın bulunduğu tahmin edilmektedir. Ayrıca Türkler, Gürcistan’ın ikinci büyük etnik grubunu teşkil etmektedir. Hatta, hiçbir zaman gündeme getirmemiş olsa da, 1921 tarihli Kars Anlaşması gereğince, Acaristan üzerinde Türkiye’nin garantörlük hakkı bulunmaktadır.

Türkiye ile Rusya arasında bir tampon bölge işlevi gören, Kafkasya’nın 4.7 milyon nüfuslu kilit ülkesi Gürcistan’ın istikrara kavuşması, bölgesel güvenlik açısından da önem arz etmektedir. Kafkasya coğrafyasında etkinlik mücadelesi veren Türkiye için Gürcistan, Türkistan’a açılan bir kapı olması nedeniyle de stratejik bir değer taşımakta, Türkiye-Gürcistan ekonomik ilişkileri hızla gelişmekte ve bu kapsamda dev projelere imza atılmaktadır. 2006 yılında hizmete giren Bakü-Tiflis-Ceyhan Petrol Boru Hattı, İpek Demiryolu Projesi gibi ortak yatırımlar bunlara örnek olarak gösterilebilir.

Gürcistan’la iyi ilişkiler geliştiren Türkiye’nin Rusya ile de dengeli bir siyaset izlediği ve bu ülke ile ekonomik ilişkilerinin iyi düzeyde olduğu hususunu da gözardı etmememiz gerekmektedir. Ayrıca, Türkiye-Rusya arasında, enerji dağıtım güzergâhı ve Güney Kafkasya’nın hâkimiyeti konusunda bir rekabet söz konusu olsa da, bu durumun iki ülkenin siyasi ve ekonomik ilişkilerini menfi yönde etkilemesine izin verilmemesi ve Rusya ile enerji alanında muhtemel işbirliği fırsatlarının iyi değerlendirilmesi gerektiği kanaatindeyiz.

Bu nedenle, Türkiye’nin Kafkasya’da etkili bir politika yürütmesi ve bunu yaparken her iki komşu ülke ile ilişkilerinin bozulmasına fırsat vermemesi gerekmektedir. Bunun ön şartı olarak, Türkiye’nin bölgede yaşanan sıcak çatışmanın dışında kalması ve tarafsızlığını koruması çok önemlidir. Fakat, bölgede var olan çelişkiler yumağının, aynı zamanda Türkiye’nin tarafsızlığını korumasını da ne kadar güçleştirdiği ortadadır. Öyle ki, Güney Osetya ve Abhazya hareketlerini ayrılıkçı terör olarak değerlendirip Gürcistan’ın siyasi egemenliği ve toprak bütünlüğünü savunması halinde, bu defa Rusya işgalci konumuna düşecek ve doğal olarak bu ülkenin tepkisiyle karşılaşacaktır. Şayet, Gürcistan’ın bu özerk bölgeleri işgal ettiğini kabul edecek olsa bu defa bu ülke ile olan ilişkisi zarar görebilecektir. Ayrıca, Rusya’nın, açıkca Türkiye’yi ABD ile birlikte Gürcistan’a silah satmakla suçlaması-bir zamanlar Çeçenistan’a destek vermekle suçladığı gibi- Türkiye’nin tarafsızlığını koruma anlamında, ne kadar hassas bir konumda olduğunu işaret etmektedir.

Netice itibariyle, Türkiye’nin, bölgedeki komşuları Gürcistan, Rusya ve Azerbaycan ile yakın ekonomik ve siyasi ilişkiler geliştirdiği, Ermenistan ile diyalog kapılarının açılabileceğine dair işaretlerin belirdiği bir dönemde, Kafkasya’da patlak veren bu savaş, talihsiz bir gelişme olarak değerlendirilmektedir.

ABD’nin Kafkasya’da tahrik ettiği gerginliğin de etkisiyle bölgede sıcak bir çatışma ve hatta adı konmamış bir savaş patlak vermiş ve binlerce sivil hayatını kaybetmiş bulunmaktadır. Tüm Kafkasya’ya yayılması ihtimali bulunan bu savaşın, ABD’nin Avrasya coğrafyasına hâkim olma mücadelesinin bir parçası olup olmadığını ve bölgede ortaya çıkan istikrarsız ortamın neticede bu ülkenin jeostratejik çıkarlarına ne şekilde hizmet edeceğini görmek için biraz beklememiz gerekecektir.

Bölgede patlak veren savaştan, Rusya ve Gürcistan kadar ABD’nin de sorumluluğunun bulunduğu bilinmektedir. Bu nedenle, her ne kadar Kafkaslarda tansiyonu düşürmek bu ülkelerin görevi olsa da, esasen, istikrarlı bir yapıya sahip Türkiye’nin de bu süreçte etkin bir rol oynaması gerektiği kanaatindeyiz. Bu durumda, jeopolitik öneme sahip bölgesel bir güç olarak Türkiye’nin, tarafları müzakere masasına oturtmak ve sorunu diplomatik yollardan çözmek için, Kafkasya’daki tüm ülkeleri bir araya getirmek suretiyle, arabuluculuk işlevini yerine getirmesi yararlı olacaktır. Bu şekilde, bölgesinde itibar gören bir ülke olarak Türkiye, hem Kafkasya’da kalıcı bir barışın temellerinin atılması ve hem de bölgesel istikrarı bozmaya yönelik dış müdahalelere karşı ortak bir direnç noktası oluşturulması bağlamında inisiyatif kullanmış olabilecektir.

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